看中国。中国的钢产量 – 億萬富豪們之家-The home of the billionaires-亿万富豪们之家

看中国。中国的钢产量,在2011年6月达到日产200万吨的历史峰值，随后,在下半年,出现了下降。从那以后，没有出现任何复苏的迹象。自去年10月,到上个月，平均日产量大约为170万吨。

钢库存正在上升，中国港口码头旁存放的铁矿石存货,同样在上升。花旗集团的大宗商品分析师-丹尼尔.海因斯说，铁矿石库存量,已经从中国钢厂,28至30天的需求量,增长到大约36天的需求量。

钢库存的迅速上升,是因为市场原先预料的需求回升没有出现。海因斯说，这个时候,往往是一个中国钢产量出现强硬回升的时间段。到目前为止，让市场始料未及的是，中国农历新年之后，经济活动,并未出现通常的反弹。

作为重要的钢铁消耗大户，中国的汽车业,去年12月的销量,下降了7%;

房地产业正在面临供应过剩。摩根公司估计，中国各大城市市场上的存量住房,平均达到24个月的供应量。

1月和2月，中国的钢产量,比去年同期,下降了12%。花旗集团的海因斯认为，如果中国的钢产量继续陷入停滞,而不出现增长的话，可能会出现全球铁矿石产量过剩的状况。如果中国钢产量只有6.5亿吨，对铁矿石的需求,将下降5%，从而,留下大约3500万吨的供应过剩。

海因斯估计，随着中国在下跌的市场中减少产量，铁矿石的价格,在短期内,可能会下降到每吨100美元以下，之后,再稳定在每吨100,至110美元左右。

煤炭的情况,也大同小异。如果去年最后三个月内,表现明显的需求特征,在今年全年,得以维持的话，中国的热能煤进口量,今年将减少一半。热能煤的价格,已经从去年9月的每吨130美元,下降到了110美元左右。海因斯认为，如果需求不能恢复的话，热能煤的价格,将进一步下降。

炼焦煤的价格,也在下降。12月份,当季的价格,为每吨285美元;3月份当季的期货,合约价格为235美元。炼焦煤的现货市场,还不完善，但是,海因斯认为:优质煤目前的交易价格,大约为每吨210美元。

澳大利亚的年度中期预算评估报告预料，本财政年度的进出口交换比率,将下降1.75%，之后,随着出口平均价格在其后的18个月内,相对于进口价格下降3.5%，2012年,到2013年财政年度的进出口交换比率,将下降5.25%。

鉴于资源类产品,占了澳大利亚所有出口产品的大约三分之二，中国增长放慢,导致价格出现20%左右的下降，将会带来举足轻重的影响。

澳大利亚财政部估计，进出口交换比率下降4%，将使澳大利亚的GDP下降0.25%，就业率下降0.5%，消费下降0.5%，企业利润下降3%。目前，中国最新发布的一系列经济数据,仍然低于预期。澳大利亚的经济风险，有可能随着中国钢铁业,一周接一周不如人意的表现,而变得日益严重。

澳洲家庭年均购买5300美元的中国商品
2012年04月03日,澳大利亚《时代报》

想知道澳大利亚人每年花多少钱购买中国货吗?现在,有答案了。根据一份研究报告,每个澳大利亚家庭,每年平均花费5100澳元(约合5300美元)购买中国商品。

艾伦咨询集团称,去年,有价值超过430亿澳元的中国产品,被进口到澳大利亚,其中,大多是电信设备,服装和计算机产品。中国产品进口额,与上一年相比,增长了16%。中国货涌入,帮助缓解了因为住房、医疗和教育产品价格飞涨,而陷入财务拮据状况的澳大利亚消费者的负担,并相应减少了通货膨胀的压力。

　　这份研究报告,由澳大利亚中国商会委托撰写。该商会会长-弗兰克·德说:“你只需前往本地的邦宁斯建材卖场,就能发现:与中国进行贸易的好处。丰富的住房装修产品,反映了中国产品的多样化、质量和廉价。这些进口产品,对于抑制通货膨胀,起到了重要作用。”

　　新南威尔士州和维多利亚州,是澳大利亚进口中国产品最多的两个州。去年,维多利亚州每个家庭,平均消费了超过 7000澳元的中国产品。

　　与此同时,中国是澳大利亚产品的最大消费国。中国在 2010—2011财年,从澳大利亚进口了价值超过700亿澳元的产品和服务,合每个澳大利亚家庭大约8300澳元。对中国的出口占澳大利亚全部出口额的大约 1/4。迄今为止,西澳大利亚州居民,是对中国出口的最大受益者。

Look at China. China’s steel production in June 2011 reached a historical peak daily output of 200 tons, Subsequently, there was a decrease in the second half. Since then, there was no any signs of recovery. Since last October, last month, the average daily production of about 1.7 million tons.

Steel stocks are rising, the stored iron ore inventories in China next to the port, also on the rise. Citigroup commodity analyst – Daniel Hynes said the iron ore inventory levels, from the Chinese steel mills, the demand for 28-30 days, up to approximately 36 days of demand.

The rapid rise of the steel stocks, because the market had expected, demand has picked up does not appear. Hynes said, this is often a Chinese steel production in the time period of the tough rebound. So far, the market did not expect, after the Chinese New Year, economic activity, not usually rebound.

Guzzler as an important iron and steel, China’s auto industry sales in December last year, down 7 percent;

The real estate industry is facing oversupply. Morgan estimated that the stock of housing in major cities in China on the market to achieve an average 24-month supply.

In January and February, China’s steel production over the same period last year, down 12 percent. Citigroup’s Hynes believes that if China’s steel production continues to stagnate, rather than growth, then the situation of excess global iron ore production may occur. If the Chinese steel production was only 650 million tons, the demand for iron ore will drop 5%, thus, leaving about 35 million tons of excess supply.

Hines estimates that with China to reduce production, iron ore prices in a declining market, in the short term, may drop to below $ 100 per ton, then stabilized at 100 a tonne to about $ 110.

The case of coal, but also similar. If the last three months, the obvious demand characteristics in this year, can be maintained, China’s thermal coal imports this year will be reduced by half. The price of thermal coal, from $ 130 per ton in September last year, dropped to about $ 110. Hynes believes that if the demand does not recover, thermal coal prices will decline further.

Coking coal prices have been declining. December quarter price of $ 285 per ton; March quarter futures contract price of $ 235. Coking coal spot market is not perfect, but Hynes said: the current trading price of high quality coal, about $ 210 per tonne.

Australia’s mid-year budget assessment report is expected terms of trade for the current fiscal year, down 1.75 percent, and then, with the average export price in the next 18 months, import prices fell 3.5 percent in 2012. to the terms of trade for the fiscal year 2013, down 5.25 percent.

View of resource products, accounting for about two-thirds of all Australian exports, China’s growth slowed, resulting in prices about 20 percent of the decline, they will have a decisive influence.

Australian Treasury estimates that the terms of trade fell 4 percent, Australia’s GDP will decline by 0.25%, the employment rate decreased by 0.5%, consumption fell by 0.5% and 3% decline in corporate profits. At present, China’s latest release of a series of economic data is still lower than expected. Australia’s economic risks, week after week unsatisfactory performance, with the Chinese steel industry has become increasingly serious.

Australian average family to buy 5300 dollars of Chinese goods
April 3, 2012, Australia “The Age”

Want to know Australians each year how much money to buy Chinese goods? Now have the answer. According to a research report, each Australian family, the average annual cost A $ 5100 (about 5300 U.S. dollars) to buy Chinese goods.

The Allen Consulting Group, said last year, valued at more than $ 43 billion of Chinese products being imported into Australia, which, in most of telecommunications equipment, clothing and computer products. China’s product imports, compared with the previous year, an increase of 16%. The influx of Chinese goods, to help alleviate the burden because the soaring price of housing, medical care and education, and into the status of the financial constraints of Australian consumers, and a corresponding reduction in inflationary pressures.

The study, commissioned by the Australia China Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber of Commerce – Frank said: “You simply go to the local the Bang Ningsi building materials stores, can be found: the benefits of trade with China. A wealth of home improvement products, reflecting the diversification of products in China, quality and cheap imported products, for inflation, has played an important role. ”

New South Wales and Victoria, the two states of Australian imports of Chinese products. Last year, each household in Victoria, the average consumption of more than 7000 Australian dollars of Chinese products.

At the same time, China is Australia’s biggest consumer of the product. China in the 2010-2011 fiscal year, imports from Australia more than 70 billion Australian dollars worth of products and services together every Australian family about 8300 Australian dollars. Exports to China accounted for about 1/4 of all Australian exports. So far, the residents of Western Australia is the biggest beneficiaries of Chinese exports.

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