白宫信 WHITE HOUSE MEMO The President is focused on repealing and replacing Obamacare with a better system that will drive down costs and increase choices for all Americans. MORNING: 11:00AM: President Trump drops by the Women in Healthcare panel hosted by Seema Verma, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 11:30AM: President Trump hosts a Legislative Affairs group meeting AFTERNOON: 3:00PM: President Trump meets with the Congressional Black Caucus Executive Committee 6:30PM: President Trump has dinner with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson GET INVOLVED We are entering Day 3 of Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Judge Gorsuch needs our support. Make Your Voice Heard: Demand the Senate Confirm Gorsuch. Sign the Petition. FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP Retweet Retweet OVAL OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS President Trump signs S. 442: the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017. Read More President Trump proclaims March 21, 2017, as National Agriculture Day. Read More WHITE HOUSE UPDATES Photo of the Day: President Donald J. Trump receives a NASA flight jacket, after signing the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017. (Official White House Photo by Paul Williams) View Photo Follow White House on Instagram Senate Hearings to Confirm Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court Begin This Week Read More Overwhelming, Bipartisan Support for Supreme Court Nominee Judge Gorsuch Read More HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY Be sure to follow @GorsuchFacts on Twitter and use #ConfirmGorsuch to keep up real-time with the hearing. Retweet PRESS ROOM Watch yesterday’s press briefing with Sean Spicer: Read Transcript Today’s press briefing will take place at 1:30PM ET in the White House Briefing Room with Press Secretary Sean Spicer. Watch it LIVE here. NEWS REPORTS McClatchy DC Bureau: “Gorsuch sailing through Supreme Court confirmation hearing, helped by Sen. Tillis ” Read More The Washington Free Beacon: “MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell: Gorsuch Hearing Was a ‘Slam Dunk’” Read More Reuters: “U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Republican healthcare bill” Read More Washington Examiner: “McConnell: ‘We are not slowing down’ on repealing Obamacare” Read More Privacy Policy Contact the White House Unsubscribe Your 1600 Daily: NASA Transition Authorization Act, Judge Gorsuch Hearings Continue

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WHITE HOUSE MEMO
The President is focused on repealing and replacing Obamacare with a better system that will drive down costs and increase choices for all Americans.

MORNING:
11:00AM: President Trump drops by the Women in Healthcare panel hosted by Seema Verma, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
11:30AM: President Trump hosts a Legislative Affairs group meeting
AFTERNOON:
3:00PM: President Trump meets with the Congressional Black Caucus Executive Committee
6:30PM: President Trump has dinner with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

GET INVOLVED
We are entering Day 3 of Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Judge Gorsuch needs our support.
Make Your Voice Heard: Demand the Senate Confirm Gorsuch. Sign the Petition.

FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP

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OVAL OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS
President Trump signs S. 442: the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017.
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President Trump proclaims March 21, 2017, as National Agriculture Day.
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Photo of the Day:

President Donald J. Trump receives a NASA flight jacket, after signing the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017. (Official White House Photo by Paul Williams)
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Senate Hearings to Confirm Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court Begin This Week
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Overwhelming, Bipartisan Support for Supreme Court Nominee Judge Gorsuch
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Be sure to follow @GorsuchFacts on Twitter and use #ConfirmGorsuch to keep up real-time with the hearing.

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PRESS ROOM
Watch yesterday’s press briefing with Sean Spicer:

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Today’s press briefing will take place at 1:30PM ET in the White House Briefing Room with Press Secretary Sean Spicer. Watch it LIVE here.

NEWS REPORTS
McClatchy DC Bureau: “Gorsuch sailing through Supreme Court confirmation hearing, helped by Sen. Tillis ”
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The Washington Free Beacon: “MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell: Gorsuch Hearing Was a ‘Slam Dunk’”
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Reuters: “U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Republican healthcare bill”
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Washington Examiner: “McConnell: ‘We are not slowing down’ on repealing Obamacare”
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《白宫信 WHITE HOUSE MEMO The President is focused on repealing and replacing Obamacare with a better system that will drive down costs and increase choices for all Americans. MORNING: 11:00AM: President Trump drops by the Women in Healthcare panel hosted by Seema Verma, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 11:30AM: President Trump hosts a Legislative Affairs group meeting AFTERNOON: 3:00PM: President Trump meets with the Congressional Black Caucus Executive Committee 6:30PM: President Trump has dinner with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson GET INVOLVED We are entering Day 3 of Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Judge Gorsuch needs our support. Make Your Voice Heard: Demand the Senate Confirm Gorsuch. Sign the Petition. FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP Retweet Retweet OVAL OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS President Trump signs S. 442: the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017. Read More President Trump proclaims March 21, 2017, as National Agriculture Day. Read More WHITE HOUSE UPDATES Photo of the Day: President Donald J. Trump receives a NASA flight jacket, after signing the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017. (Official White House Photo by Paul Williams) View Photo Follow White House on Instagram Senate Hearings to Confirm Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court Begin This Week Read More Overwhelming, Bipartisan Support for Supreme Court Nominee Judge Gorsuch Read More HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY Be sure to follow @GorsuchFacts on Twitter and use #ConfirmGorsuch to keep up real-time with the hearing. Retweet PRESS ROOM Watch yesterday’s press briefing with Sean Spicer: Read Transcript Today’s press briefing will take place at 1:30PM ET in the White House Briefing Room with Press Secretary Sean Spicer. Watch it LIVE here. NEWS REPORTS McClatchy DC Bureau: “Gorsuch sailing through Supreme Court confirmation hearing, helped by Sen. Tillis ” Read More The Washington Free Beacon: “MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell: Gorsuch Hearing Was a ‘Slam Dunk’” Read More Reuters: “U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Republican healthcare bill” Read More Washington Examiner: “McConnell: ‘We are not slowing down’ on repealing Obamacare” Read More Privacy Policy Contact the White House Unsubscribe Your 1600 Daily: NASA Transition Authorization Act, Judge Gorsuch Hearings Continue》有一个想法

  1. OK
    美国《华盛顿邮报》网站1月13日刊登普林斯顿大学伍德罗·威尔逊公共和国际事务学院政治与国际问题助理教授克伦·亚希-米洛、伦敦城市大学国际政治系讲师亚历山大·拉诺斯卡和战略与国际问题研究中心研究员扎克·库珀合作撰写的一篇文章,题为《唐纳德·特朗普如何能够消除紧张的美国盟友的疑虑?通过给他们武器》,摘要如下:
    1月20日后,唐纳德·特朗普总统将勉力应付与众多美国长期盟友间的严重紧张关系。例如,特朗普的推文表明,与俄罗斯修好是优先考虑事项,然而,北约盟友和美国国会将竭力要求向巴尔干国家等北约盟友提供支持。在亚洲,特朗普承诺对中国的“过分自信”之举奉行强硬路线,但也对日本和韩国是否对遏制中国做出足够贡献提出了质疑。
    因此,特朗普面临两难困境:他在与对手进行接触的同时如何才能消除盟友的疑虑?笔者们的研究表明,有一种可能性:武器转让。
    笔者们在最近在《国际安全》季刊上发表的文章中详述了在与盟友的关系发生变化时会出现的“保护国困境”(patron’s dilemma)。笔者们阐释了美国数十年来的战略手册,即要求美国在改善与对手的关系时通过武器转让消除盟友的疑虑并进行威慑。
    特朗普是否将根据这一战略手册行事?在地缘政治优先考虑事项发生变化时,武器转让尤为有用。以下是笔者们认为特朗普将使用这一外交政策工具的原因:
    1、武器转让能实现两大目标:升级地区威慑能力以及消除对(美国)放弃(盟友)的担心。归功于美国的武器,盟友有了更好的自卫装备。
    2、武器转让通常不会像部署美军或承担新条约义务那样引人关注。但武器转让能使接受国奉行美国也许不愿奉行的积极外交政策,尤其是如果武器转让使接受国能够采取进攻性行动的话。专家们称之为“陷入圈套”——即盟友被拖入另一国的冲突。
    3、武器转让标志着一种不同于结盟的义务形式。毕竟,通过条约缔结的联盟要求盟国在未来发生冲突时为其他盟友作战,从而束缚了他们的手脚。此种条约是正式确定下来的安全关系——通常通过一种政治性批准程序生效。这些“纸片”是不容变更的,但未必需要后续军事投资。
    最可能进行哪些类型的武器转让?
    2个因素决定着美国可能会向其被保护国提供何种联盟和武器。
    首先,美国外交决策者在决定是否建立或维持联盟时会考虑是否存在共同安全利益。在做出这一决定时,美国决策者通常会问,被保护国的安全威胁排序是与美国类似还是与美国不同。
    举例说明。二战后,西欧和美国都认为,苏联是他们最重大利益的头号威胁,因此他们建立了北约。
    如果威胁排序一致,华盛顿就会试图建立或强化联盟。如果威胁排序不同,那么,美国外交决策者就会发现,避免结盟或减少联盟义务对美国利益较有利。事实上,这正是卡特政府1978年实现与中国关系正常化的原因。
    其次,美国领导人决定是否为被保护国提供武器。在做决定时,决策者会问,被保护国能否在美国不提供援助的情况下威慑其对手。如果地区安全均势有利于对手,那么,为了巩固被保护国的安全,美国也许就必须转让武器。如果地区安全均势有利于盟友,那么,转让大量武器就是不必要的——这样做甚至可能导致被保护国陷入圈套。
    以下是这在实践中意味着什么——转让更多武器
    那么,下届政府可能会如何对付与调整美国所缔结的各种联盟有关的地缘政治难题呢?如果美国领导人试图与俄罗斯修好,能否得到报偿?
    弗拉基米尔·普京的一名亲密助手曾声称,将北约军队撤出巴尔干地区能让莫斯科相信,华盛顿寻求与俄罗斯建立更密切关系。然而,如果特朗普这样做了,他可能会受到国会和北约盟友的压力,要求他向巴尔干国家作出保证,美国将使俄罗斯利用任何大国交易的风险降至最低。
    为巩固美国长期以来的承诺,华盛顿也许会提供致命防御性武器,以加强巴尔干地区的地面防御和防空力量。此举将加强地区威慑。
    如果俄罗斯与美国修好的愿望是真心的,那么,除了接受这一妥协方案,俄罗斯也许别无选择。寻找先例的话,看一看最近的伊朗协议就行了。自2015年7月达成伊朗核协议以来,沙特阿拉伯接受了大量美国武器,包括一项价值10亿美元的武器协议,以减轻其安全关切。
    在与中国关系正常化后,曾多次上演此种戏码。华盛顿同意承认北京为中国的唯一合法政府。然而,华盛顿常常向台湾转让大批武器,例如战斗机和防空导弹系统,以让台北相信,美国仍承诺增强台湾保卫自己的能力。
    步奥巴马之后尘?
    与其对俄罗斯的态度不同,特朗普似乎支持对中国采取更强硬态度,他关于一个中国政策发表的言论即为明证。然而,特朗普关于让日本和韩国分担负担的言论制造了一种紧张气氛,因为制衡中国需要加强(而不是弱化)与日本和韩国的同盟。
    历史表明,美国有可能向台湾提供更多武器,因为解放军的军事现代化导致海峡两岸军事均势在变化。特朗普政府也许会觉得,需要提供较奥巴马总统2015年所承诺的更大规模、更先进、更持久的武器转让一揽子计划。
    还有,尽管要求让日本和韩国在联盟中分担更多责任,特朗普领导的新政府也许会向这些联盟投资更多,以分别维持对中国和朝鲜的地区军事均势。
    简而言之,从欧洲到亚洲,特朗普政府也许最终会依赖武器转让为消除疑虑和进行威慑的主要工具。若这样做,特朗普就是在步奥巴马政府的后尘——奥巴马政府批准的武器交易是二战后美国历届政府中最多的。对联盟政治而言,武器转让也许是一种新的交易艺术。

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