以下三个数字将在选举日,决定选民是投票给现任总统奥巴马,还是给他的共和党对手?

以下三个数字将在选举日,决定选民是投票给现任总统奥巴马,还是给他的共和党对手?

(一)失业率。有一个数字能反映整体经济健康和选民情绪,那就是失业率。
奥巴马,2009年宣誓就职的时候,衰退刚刚一年,失业率为7.8%。失业率为当年达到10%的高峰,随后,逐步回落到8.5%。那种下滑趋势,对奥巴马有利,多数经济学家认为:要经过很多年失业率,才能再次回到5%那种经济繁荣、“充分就业”范围。
关键数字:9%。失业率可能回升,原来放弃求职的失业者,可能再次找工作,增加技术上的失业数据。如果经济继续缓慢好转,即使失业率靠近9%,奥巴马有可能连任。雇主,自从2010年初,已经增加270万个就业职位,如果目前的趋势继续下去,奥巴马可以在选举前夕说,过去三年来,美国经济已经创造500万就业职位。更重要的是,选民会感觉比较好,他们会看到:由于失业而处于困境的人数减少,工资提高和得到提升的人数增加。
如果失业率超过9%,再次衰退在酝酿中,公司再次裁员。如果欧洲金融崩溃,或者其它冲击造成公司主管和投资者神经紧张,那种情况,可能发生。即使那不是奥巴马的错,他可能因为失业率再次猛增,受罚,他自己,在2013年“失业”。
(二)汽油价格。任何一种商品价格,都不会像汽油那样影响消费者的情绪。几英尺的汽油价格招牌,在各个加油站提醒人们,开车的花销有多大,汽油价格上涨,通常和信心下降水平相关。消费者似乎已经习惯了-每加仑3美元左右的价格,民调显示:许多开车人准备未来汽油价格继续上涨。但是,汽油价格的任何上涨,都会像加税一样,从消费者口袋里面掏钱,不给他们任何东西作为回报。
关键数字:每加仑3.75美元。2011年,接近每加仑4美元之后,汽油价格已经回落到3.4美元左右,这个价格。汽油价格波动幅度大,其中,可能推动油价猛涨的事件,就是同伊朗在波斯湾对峙,部分分析家说,那会把汽油价格,推高到每加仑5美元。
奥巴马有张王牌:美国战略石油储备–石油供应短缺时,他可以投入市场,降低原油和汽油价格。汽油价格接近4美元,就会成为媒体关注焦点,3.75美元是个关键水平。
奥巴马可能希望汽油价格更低;共和党对手可能因为汽油价格上升而受益。
(三)道琼斯指数。多数工薪族或中产阶级家庭不是每天都跟踪股票价格
股市仍然对整体经济有很大影响。股市上扬,能缓和公司的金融压力,允许他们增加雇员和投资。拥有大量股票的富人,在投资价值上升时,会感觉更好,增加从食品、汽车,到孩子音乐辅导课的开支。许多普通人的退休金,或退休储蓄账户,因为股市上扬,受益,因此,感觉比较乐观。
股市下滑,引起信心下降,即使没有在股市上损失金钱的人,也是如此。
关键数字:12832点。那,将比道琼斯2012年开市数字上升5%,华尔街许多分析师预计:今年会看到那一数字–只要不发生重大冲击。股市上升5%,当然不会在选举日有太大影响,它反映经济逐步恢复,惨遭打击的金融业,正在回到基本面。它反映联储会的“量化宽松”政策收效。
如果道琼斯指数低于那个数字,很多,那许会表示:某些方面出了差错。股市也许已经准备今年出现几次挫折,包括,希腊债务危机恶化、石油价格短期上涨等。更严重的事件,可能吓坏投资者,造成新一轮悲观循环。即使不是奥巴马引起的冲击,紧张又疲倦的选民,也可能把他选下去。就像很多美国人一样,奥巴马今年,要保住工作,容许差错的边际很小。

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The following three figures will on election day, voters decided to vote for President Barack Obama, or to his Republican opponent?

(A) the unemployment rate. There is a number that reflects the overall economic health and voter sentiment, and that is the unemployment rate.
Obama, when sworn in 2009, just one year recession, the unemployment rate was 7.8%. Unemployment rate for the year to 10% of the peak, then gradually fell to 8.5%. The kind of decline, Obama favorable, most economists believe that: to go through many years of unemployment, in order to return to 5% of the kind of economic prosperity, “full employment” range.
Key figures: 9%. Unemployment rate may rise, the unemployed had to give up job, it may once again looking for work, increased technical unemployment data. If the economy continues to slowly improve, even if the unemployment rate near 9%, Obama is likely to re-election. Employers, since early 2010, has increased 2.7 million jobs, if current trends continue, Obama in the election, said in the past three years, the U.S. economy has created 5 million jobs. More importantly, the voters will feel better, they will see: As the number of people unemployed and struggling to reduce the wage increase and be enhanced to increase the number of people.
If the unemployment rate of over 9 percent, recession once again in the pipeline, the company laid off again. If the European financial collapse, or other shocks company executives and investors nervous, that situation may occur. Even if it is not Obama’s fault, he may because the unemployment rate soared again, punished, he, in 2013, “unemployment.”
(B) gasoline prices. Any kind of commodity prices, are not as affected as the gasoline consumer sentiment. A few feet of the gasoline price signs, in all gas stations to remind people how to drive spending, gasoline prices usually decline in the level of confidence related. Consumers seem to have become accustomed to – about $ 3 per gallon price, polls show: Many people are prepared to drive the future of gasoline prices continue to rise. However, any increase gasoline prices, will be the same as tax increases, money from the pockets of consumers, do not give them anything in return.
Key figures: $ 3.75 per gallon. In 2011, after close to $ 4 a gallon, gasoline prices have fallen to 3.4 U.S. dollars, the price. Large volatility of gasoline prices, which could push oil prices soared in the event that the confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf, some analysts said, that gasoline prices will push up to $ 5 per gallon.
Obama has a trump card: the U.S. strategic oil reserves – the oil supply, he can put into the market, lower crude oil and gasoline prices. Gasoline prices approaching $ 4, will become the focus of media attention, $ 3.75 is a critical level.
Obama may want to lower gasoline prices; Republican opponent may benefit because of rising gasoline prices.
(C) the Dow Jones index. Most wage earners or middle-class family is not every day, tracking stock price
The stock market still has great influence on the overall economy. Stock market, the company can ease the financial pressure, allowing them to increase the employees and investment. Has a large stock of the rich, increase in investment value, it will feel better, increase from the food, cars, music tutoring sessions to children’s expenses. Many ordinary people’s pension, or retirement savings account, because the stock market, benefit, therefore, feel more optimistic.
Stock market decline, causing decline in confidence, if not losing money in the stock market people, too.
Key figures: 12 832 points. That, opened in 2012 than the number of the Dow Jones rose by 5%, many Wall Street analysts expected: this year which will see the number – as long as no major impact. 5% increase in the stock market, of course, will not have much impact on election day, which reflects the gradual economic recovery, brutally crack down on financial sector, are returning to fundamentals. It reflects the Fed’s “quantitative easing” policy effective.
If the Dow is lower than that number, many, many would say it: Some aspects of went wrong. Stock market may have prepared several times this year, setbacks, including the Greek debt crisis worsened, rising oil prices, short-term. More serious incidents, may be frightened investors, resulting in a new round of gloomy cycle. Obama, if not caused by the impact of stress and fatigue voters may also go to his election. Like many Americans, Obama this year, to keep their jobs, allowing a small margin of error.

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《以下三个数字将在选举日,决定选民是投票给现任总统奥巴马,还是给他的共和党对手?》有一个想法

  1. 美国前总统克林顿在接受一家媒体New Esquire采访时,没有任何犹豫地说:“我认为:奥巴马将成为下一任总统,我认为他会赢。”

    《 纽约每日新闻》报道说,也许,美国人对从大衰退中-复苏的步子太慢-显得有些不耐烦了,但,“他们会最终认识到:需要很长时间,经济才会恢复到以前的繁荣,”美国前总统克林顿说。

    美国前总统克林顿说:“美国民众理解:奥巴马承接了布什时期的经济危机,以及共和党不少失败的政策。选民也明白,奥巴马的政策,更有可能带领美国走出困境”。

    美国前总统克林顿说,“此外,奥巴马救助美国汽车业的举动,为他留下一个非常有力的纪录,他不是可以击败的。”

    在接受记者采访时,美国前总统克林顿表示,奥巴马和与之抗衡的共和党,和他自己两任总统时候的共和党,已经大不一样。

    “我们生活在共和党不停向右推进的时代,”他说。

    美国前总统克林顿说,这甚至已经影响了他政治克星、前众议院议长、现在,在共和党总统选战中(与领跑者罗姆尼越来越近)的金里奇。

    “作为一个普通公民,金里奇认为:医疗保健改革和气候变化很重要,而现在,就像罗姆尼一样,两人都不能忽视这两个问题。”

    美国前总统克林顿说,“罗姆尼仍然在试图找出他作为马萨诸塞州州长时候的做法,并不断以共和党右翼的面目出现”。

    美国前总统克林顿赞扬现任众议院议长俄亥俄州共和党人约翰•博纳具有“良好的判断力。”

    奥巴马的筹款能力,不容忽视。

    奥巴马周四,将来纽约参加竞选筹款活动。

    奥巴马和民主党全国委员会,去年,已经筹得超过2.2亿美元,用于2012年竞选的经费。

    奥巴马在佛罗里达州迪斯尼世界宣布了一项总统行政命令,旨在简化和缩短针对中国和巴西的旅客办理签证到美旅游的程序和时间。
    奥巴马明确下令,国务院和国土安全部门今年特别向中国和巴西游客增发40%的签证。
    奥巴马表示,要确保80%的非移民签证申请者,在三周内,完成美国领事人员签证面试。
    自“9·11”恐怖袭击以来,美国的外国游客人数平平。美国在2001年,发出760万个签证;2010年,发出650万个。
    美国旅游业要恢复到2001年前的水平,可以创造130万个就业岗位,并到2020年,注入价值8600亿美元的经济活动。
    美国旅游官员表示,美国是巴西和中国游客的热门旅游目的地,商务和休闲是他们来美国的主要形式。

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    陈先生,短信接收: 0086-13901623260;
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    陈先生,短信接收: 0086-13901623260;
    英语Former U.S. President Bill Clinton told a media New Esquire interview, without any hesitation, said: “I think: Obama will become the next president, I think he will win.”

    “New York Daily News” reported that, perhaps, Americans from the Great Recession – the pace of recovery is too slow – a bit impatient, but, “they will eventually realize: the need for a long time, the economy will return to former prosperity, “said former U.S. President Bill Clinton.

    Former U.S. President Bill Clinton said: “The American people understand: Obama takes over the Bush-era economic crisis, and many of the failed Republican policies voters understand that Obama’s policies are more likely to lead the U.S. out of the woods.”

    Former U.S. President Bill Clinton said, “In addition, Obama rescue the U.S. auto industry moves, as he left a very strong record, he can not beat.”

    In an interview with reporters, said former U.S. President Bill Clinton, Obama and the Republican Party to contend with, and when his two-term Republican president, has been quite different.

    “We live in the era of the Republican Party to promote non-stop to the right,” he said.

    Former U.S. President Bill Clinton said that this has even affected his political nemesis, former House Speaker, now, the Republican presidential election campaign (with leader Mitt Romney is getting closer) and Newt Gingrich.

    “As an ordinary citizen, Gingrich said: health care reform and climate change is important, but now, like Romney, as they can not ignore these two issues.”

    Former U.S. President Bill Clinton said, “Romney is still trying to figure out his time as governor of Massachusetts, the practice, and continue to the right-wing Republican Party emerged.”

    Former U.S. President Bill Clinton praised the current Speaker of the House, Ohio Republican John Boehner • have a “good common sense.”

    Obama’s fundraising ability, can not be ignored.

    Obama on Thursday, will run for New York fund-raising activities.

    Obama and the Democratic National Committee last year, has raised more than $ 220 million funding for the 2012 election.

    Disney World in Florida, Obama announced a presidential executive order designed to simplify and shorten the passengers for China and Brazil to the U.S. visa procedures and travel time.
    Obama has specifically ordered, the State Department and Homeland Security departments special this year, visitors to China and Brazil, 40% of visa issuance.
    Obama said, to ensure that 80% of non-immigrant visa applicants, within three weeks, the U.S. consular officers to complete the visa interview.
    Since the “9.11” terrorist attacks, the U.S. average number of foreign tourists. The United States in 2001, issued 7.6 million visas; 2010, issued 6.5 million.
    U.S. tourism is to return to the level before 2001, you can create 1.3 million jobs, and by 2020, worth $ 860 billion into the economy.
    Tourism officials said the United States, Brazil and the United States is a popular tourist destination for Chinese tourists, business and leisure to the United States is their main form.

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