The following three figures will on election day, voters decided to vote for President Barack Obama, or to his Republican opponent?
(A) the unemployment rate. There is a number that reflects the overall economic health and voter sentiment, and that is the unemployment rate.
Obama, when sworn in 2009, just one year recession, the unemployment rate was 7.8%. Unemployment rate for the year to 10% of the peak, then gradually fell to 8.5%. The kind of decline, Obama favorable, most economists believe that: to go through many years of unemployment, in order to return to 5% of the kind of economic prosperity, “full employment” range.
Key figures: 9%. Unemployment rate may rise, the unemployed had to give up job, it may once again looking for work, increased technical unemployment data. If the economy continues to slowly improve, even if the unemployment rate near 9%, Obama is likely to re-election. Employers, since early 2010, has increased 2.7 million jobs, if current trends continue, Obama in the election, said in the past three years, the U.S. economy has created 5 million jobs. More importantly, the voters will feel better, they will see: As the number of people unemployed and struggling to reduce the wage increase and be enhanced to increase the number of people.
If the unemployment rate of over 9 percent, recession once again in the pipeline, the company laid off again. If the European financial collapse, or other shocks company executives and investors nervous, that situation may occur. Even if it is not Obama’s fault, he may because the unemployment rate soared again, punished, he, in 2013, “unemployment.”
(B) gasoline prices. Any kind of commodity prices, are not as affected as the gasoline consumer sentiment. A few feet of the gasoline price signs, in all gas stations to remind people how to drive spending, gasoline prices usually decline in the level of confidence related. Consumers seem to have become accustomed to – about $ 3 per gallon price, polls show: Many people are prepared to drive the future of gasoline prices continue to rise. However, any increase gasoline prices, will be the same as tax increases, money from the pockets of consumers, do not give them anything in return.
Key figures: $ 3.75 per gallon. In 2011, after close to $ 4 a gallon, gasoline prices have fallen to 3.4 U.S. dollars, the price. Large volatility of gasoline prices, which could push oil prices soared in the event that the confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf, some analysts said, that gasoline prices will push up to $ 5 per gallon.
Obama has a trump card: the U.S. strategic oil reserves – the oil supply, he can put into the market, lower crude oil and gasoline prices. Gasoline prices approaching $ 4, will become the focus of media attention, $ 3.75 is a critical level.
Obama may want to lower gasoline prices; Republican opponent may benefit because of rising gasoline prices.
(C) the Dow Jones index. Most wage earners or middle-class family is not every day, tracking stock price
The stock market still has great influence on the overall economy. Stock market, the company can ease the financial pressure, allowing them to increase the employees and investment. Has a large stock of the rich, increase in investment value, it will feel better, increase from the food, cars, music tutoring sessions to children’s expenses. Many ordinary people’s pension, or retirement savings account, because the stock market, benefit, therefore, feel more optimistic.
Stock market decline, causing decline in confidence, if not losing money in the stock market people, too.
Key figures: 12 832 points. That, opened in 2012 than the number of the Dow Jones rose by 5%, many Wall Street analysts expected: this year which will see the number – as long as no major impact. 5% increase in the stock market, of course, will not have much impact on election day, which reflects the gradual economic recovery, brutally crack down on financial sector, are returning to fundamentals. It reflects the Fed’s “quantitative easing” policy effective.
If the Dow is lower than that number, many, many would say it: Some aspects of went wrong. Stock market may have prepared several times this year, setbacks, including the Greek debt crisis worsened, rising oil prices, short-term. More serious incidents, may be frightened investors, resulting in a new round of gloomy cycle. Obama, if not caused by the impact of stress and fatigue voters may also go to his election. Like many Americans, Obama this year, to keep their jobs, allowing a small margin of error.
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