美国总统大选开锣 分析称,奥巴马连任优势明显,2012年01月04日

美国总统大选开锣 分析称,奥巴马连任优势明显,2012年01月04日 1月2日,奥巴马结束度假返回华盛顿。 1月2日,美国艾奥瓦州,支持率领先的共和党竞选人罗姆尼和选民在一起。 “马拉松式”美国总统大选开锣 共和党在艾奥瓦州举行首场预选,6名竞选人参选,马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼支持率领跑 当地时间3日晚,美国一个人口只有300万,面积不足15万平方公里的小州——艾奥瓦州将吸引全美国、乃至全世界的目光。当天,美国共和党将在这里举行总统大选首场预选,由此拉开2012年美国总统选举序幕。美国总统大选程序复杂,将持续近一年的时间。在繁杂的预选程序后,最重要的全国选举,将在今年11月举行。 1700场会议选代表   3日晚,6名来自共和党的总统候选人将接受艾奥瓦州大约12万共和党支持者的“挑选”,这些支持者将在艾奥瓦州99个县,大约1700个地点举行会议,选出该州28个代表,参加预计于8月举行的共和党全国代表大会。全国代表大会将选出代表共和党的总统候选人,与民主党总统候选人最后角逐总统宝座。 尽管不是直接选举本人,对共和党6名候选人而言,只要赢得多数代表支持,就被认为赢得了该州预选。赢得最底层选民的支持,是这一切的最关键。   目前,支持率领先的三名竞选人,分别是马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼、得克萨斯州众议员保罗,以及宾夕法尼亚州前参议员桑托勒姆。此外,有前众议院议长金里奇、得克萨斯州州长佩里,以及明尼苏达州众议员巴克曼参选。   美国前驻华大使洪博培,已宣布参加共和党总统候选人的竞选,因支持率垫底,洪博培已基本放弃了艾奥瓦州的选战,全力备战新罕布什尔州预选。   共和党热烈,民主党安静   在共和党方面紧锣密鼓的展开预选之时,民主党方面依然静悄悄。总统奥巴马有充分时间准备最后的决战,目前的共和党预选,刚好为他提供了了解对手的良机。 美国白宫2日说,奥巴马将于当地时间4日赴俄亥俄州,在当地一所中学,就经济问题发表讲话。分析人士认为,2012年美国经济的发展态势,将成为奥巴马是否能竞选连任的关键。   同共和党一样,民主党方面将在各州选举该党全国大会代表,再由这些代表,选出民主党总统候选人。   大选程序   民主、共和两党在全国各州及首都预选(开会选举或直接投票)   选出两党全国代表大会代表   两党召开全国代表大会,确定总统候选人   两党总统候选人展开全国竞选   全国选民投票选出总统“选举人”   由总统“选举人”投票选举总统   共和党“另类”多; 奥巴马“偷着乐”   从历史上看,由于以往最终胜出的共和党总统候选人,多数在艾奥瓦州和新罕布什尔州拔得头筹,所以,这两州预选结果格外引发关注。   从目前民调来看,罗姆尼、保罗和桑托勒姆,在艾奥瓦州名列前三名,不出意外的话,胜者将从这三人中产生。罗姆尼因拥有2008年参选经验、州长经历、充沛的竞选资金及强大的竞选团队等,被认为可能成为共和党“自然而然的总统候选人”。 其政策主张多次变化,被指“虚假保守派”,其摩门教背景,让基督教主流社会“心存疑虑”。   76岁的保罗是共和党内“另类”,其部分主张非常极端,如一旦当选,就废除能源部、教育部、商务部和美联储,主张美国退出联合国等,这让共和党主流对他敬而远之。 桑托勒姆在一些社会问题上,立场极端,如,强烈反对同性恋及堕胎等。   就共和党预选整体形势而言,金里奇,有最后胜出可能。由于从政经验丰富、政策主张保守、口才出众以及知名度高,金里奇在最近两月,选情异军突起。但他的历史包袱很重,如,两次婚姻都因婚外恋结束,任议长时,导致政府关门被迫辞职等。   对奥巴马而言,不受丑闻困扰、没有出现重大政策失误、拥有强大竞选团队和筹款优势,以及击毙拉登、通过“幕后领导”推翻卡扎菲的统治、结束伊拉克战等,都为他成功连任,加分不少。如美国经济疲弱长久得不到改观,也将拖累奥巴马的选情。 无论如何,共和党内“非主流”、“另类”和“极端”参选人脱颖而出,显示奥巴马应不会遭遇强有力的挑战。 U.S. presidential election kicked off analysis, Obama re-election have obvious advantages, January 4, 2012 January 2, Obama returned to Washington the end of vacation. January 2, U.S. Iowa, support for the leading Republican candidates Mitt Romney and voters together. “Marathon” kicked off the U.S. presidential election Republicans held the first primaries in Iowa, six election candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney led the run support Evening local time, the United States with a population of only 300 million and an area less than 15 million square kilometers of small states – Iowa, will attract the United States, and the world’s attention. The same day, the U.S. Republican Party will be held here first presidential election primaries, which opened off the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Complexity of the U.S. presidential election process, will continue for nearly a year. After pre-selection process in the complex, the most important national elections will be held in November this year. 1700 field representative to the meeting 3 night, six from the Republican Party’s presidential candidate will receive about 120,000 Iowa Republican supporters of the “selection”, these supporters will be 99 counties in Iowa, about 1700 locations meeting 28 elected representatives of the state, held in August is expected to attend the Republican National Convention. National Congress will elect representatives to the Republican presidential candidate, and Democratic presidential candidates for the presidency race. Although I am not a direct election, six candidates for the Republican Party, as long as the majority of representatives support to win, it was the state that won the primaries. The bottom to win support from voters, is the most critical of all this. Currently, support for the leading three candidates, namely, the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Paul, Texas Congressman and former Pennsylvania Senator Santo Salem. In addition, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as well as Minnesota Rep. Bachmann election. Former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, the Republican presidential candidates have been announced to participate in the election, because support for the bottom, Huntsman has basically abandoned the Iowa campaign, fully prepare for the New Hampshire primaries. Republicans warm, quiet Democrats On the Republican side of intense pre-start, the Democrats remained silent. President Obama has sufficient time to prepare for the final battle, the current Republican primaries, just as he provided a good opportunity to understand the opponent. The White House said on Tuesday, Obama will go to Ohio 4 local time, at a local high school, made a speech on economic issues. Analysts believe that the 2012 development trend of the U.S. economy, whether Obama will be the key to re-election. Like with the Republicans, Democrats in the state on behalf of the National Assembly election of the party, then these representatives elect the Democratic presidential candidate. Election procedures Democratic and Republican primaries in states across the country and the capital (or direct the election meeting to vote) National Congress elected representatives of the two parties Parties to convene a national congress to determine the presidential candidate National campaign launched by both presidential candidates Voters across the country vote for president, “electoral” By the President “electors” to vote for president Republican “alternative” and more; Obama “smiling” From a historical point of view, thanks to the final to win the Republican presidential candidate, mostly in Iowa and New Hampshire come out on top, so the results of the two extra Hampshire raised concerns. View from the current poll, Romney, Paul and Santo Haslem, among the top three in Iowa, no accident, then, the winner from the three men produced. Romney because it has experience in 2008 election, Governor experience, plenty of campaign funds and a strong campaign team, etc., are considered likely to become the Republican Party, “a natural candidate for president.” Several changes in its policies, accused of “false conservative”, the Mormon background, so the Christian mainstream society “skeptical.” 76-year-old Paul is the Republican Party “alternative” and some of its advocates are very extreme, as if elected, would abolish the Department of Energy, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Commerce and the Federal Reserve, that the U.S. withdraw from the UN, etc., which makes him turn away from the Republican mainstream. Santo Haslem in some social issues, the extreme position, for example, strongly opposed to homosexuality and abortion. In terms of the overall situation on the Republican primaries, Newt Gingrich, may have finally won. As an experienced politician, conservative policy advocates, superior eloquence and high-profile, Gingrich in the last two months, the sudden emergence of the election. But his heavy burden of history, for example, two marriages ended because of affair, when any speaker, led to the closing was forced to resign and so on. For Obama, not scandals, no major policy mistakes, with a strong campaign team and fundraising advantage, and killed Osama bin Laden, through the “behind the scenes leadership” to overthrow Gaddafi’s rule, end the Iraq war, etc., are He re-election, a lot of extra points. Not as weak U.S. economy long-term change, it will drag on Obama’s election. In any case, the Republicans of “non-mainstream”, “alternative” and “extreme” candidates stand out, show Obama should not face a strong challenge.

《美国总统大选开锣 分析称,奥巴马连任优势明显,2012年01月04日》有2个想法

  1. 奥巴马度假结束返回 积极备战“火拼”, 时间:2012-01-04
    1月3日,奥巴马与妻子米歇尔及两名女儿飞抵白宫。
    总统奥巴马在夏威夷度过一个短暂的圣诞新年假期后;
    3日晨,抵达华盛顿,立即马不停蹄地重新展开竞选连任工作。正当选战焦点落在艾奧瓦共和党党团会议之际,奥巴马不敢松懈,昨晚,到爱荷华州,与支持者进行网上对话,“隔空火拼”众多共和党潜在对手,全力反击他们的激烈批评。
    奥巴马昨晚赶赴爱荷华州,主持网上直播对话节目;
    次日,转到俄亥俄州克里夫兰,就经济议题发表讲话,准备反驳共和党挑战者的经济政纲。
    竞选行程结束后,奥巴马将返回华盛顿,面对非常棘手的延长工资减税议案辩论。国会经过激烈争论后,于圣诞前夕,同意延长减税方案两个月,奥巴马因此延至上月23日,才开始度假。国会议员本月稍后,将重新辩论,奥巴马希望能延长减税方案一年。
    白宫官员表示,延长工资减税方案,是奥巴马本年议程中,最后一项“必须做”的立法项目,总统在本届任期最后一年的策略,将集中采取行政措施,不需国会通过,寻求与不受欢迎的国会划清界线。
    助手称,奥巴马度假期间不忘政事,花了一些时间,思考本月24日将发表的国情咨文,咨文议程,会作为他竞选政纲的基础。
    爱荷华初选投票结果为,罗姆尼和桑托姆的支持率均为25%,但是,罗姆尼获得30015张选票,桑托姆获得30007张选票。前者比后者,获得的选票多8票,以微弱优势胜出。保罗的支持率为21%。
    周二,罗姆尼一改先前看淡爱荷华,看重新罕布什尔的竞选策略。他称,预计自己可以在爱荷华初选获胜。他告诉福克斯新闻:“我随时准备挑战奥巴马。”“我在麻州创造的工作岗位,比奥巴马在全国创造的要多。”罗姆尼称:“我愿意用我的成绩,和奥巴马上台来做的事情作比较。”
    另一个候选人桑托姆表示,“我踏遍了爱荷华州99个县,就是希望看到自己的努力没有白费。”;“选民的热情高涨,当然,我们的竞选势头也正劲。”
    保罗一直称,桑托姆是一个自由主义者;
    其他的候选人表示,保罗的外交政策极其危险。 星期二,在保罗竞选团队抹黑桑托姆后,桑托姆表示,保罗的行径,极其令人厌恶。保罗在接受福克斯新闻采访时称,桑托姆的对外援助政策,与主流保守派思想格格不入。
    金里奇和罗姆尼的口水仗,在升级。金里奇在接受哥伦比亚广播公司的采访称,“罗姆尼是一个骗子,”;“罗姆尼尽管假装没有参与抹黑我的广告,但,事实上,他是真凶。”罗姆尼在接受福克斯新闻采访时,反唇相讥:“如果你挑战不了奥巴马,就应该让位。”
    在投票所入口处民调方面,保罗最获17岁至29岁年轻选民力挺;
    罗姆尼得到65岁以上选民青睐;
    桑托姆的支持群众,在两者中间,也就是45岁至64岁选民。
    投票结果预料很快就会出炉。
    共和党候选人佩里对爱荷华初选结果表示失望之余,他称,将暂停竞选共和党总统提名。
    佩里对爱荷华的选民称,爱荷华初选结束后,他将回到老家德克萨斯州,而并不是按原计划-前往南卡罗来纳州拉选票。他说:“爱荷华初选结果,让我决定返回德州,评估初选结果和重新考虑竞选之路。”
    虽然,他没有最后宣布退选,他的语气,已经透出了这一意愿。早些时候,在爱荷华,佩里发表讲话,感谢选民对他的支持,当他念道一名志愿者来信时,佩里声音有些哽咽,他称:“这是我一生中最美好的经历。”;“这次大选,攸关美国能不能走上正确的发展道路。”
    爱荷华投票结果显示,佩里位居第五位,桑托姆和罗姆尼并列第一。当2011年8月,佩里宣布竞选后,立即被人们认为是共和党阵营中的领头羊,巨大的筹款能力和长期担任德州州长的名望,使佩里迅速的成为极具挑战性的人物。但是,他后来在辩论中的表现,有些名不副实。在辩论中,屡次出丑,最终使佩里无缘共和党总统人选提名。在爱荷华初选前冲刺阶段,佩里的竞选大巴,穿过44个城市拉票,期望和罗姆尼争夺社会保守派选民,但是,最终没有获得选民的支持。
    佩里的竞选活动,一直受到不佳的辩论表现困扰,民意调查显示,他的支持率在2011年10月份,下降了20%,2011年11月的辩论中,佩里称,自己当上总统后,将削减三个政府机构,但令人意外的是,他不记得自己要削减的第三个政府机构名称,只说出了商务部和教育部。这次辩论中的表现,使他离提名人的位置越来越远。
    佩里曾吹捧自己担任德州州长10年期间,促进了经济增长,创造了就业,把自己描绘成一个华府局外人士。为了区分自己与其他参选人,佩里建议给予个人支付20%的所得税率的选择权,他提出了将企业的税率从35%降到20%。
    爱荷华州共和党选民星期二,从7点开始,在809个党团会议地点聚会,投出2012年挑选总统候选人的第一批选票。美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)说,伦·保罗、桑托洛姆和罗姆尼,目前看来并驾齐驱。
    《 华盛顿邮报》到晚上10点的最新统计,罗姆尼得票23.4%,排第一位;;桑托洛姆得票23%,排名第二;一度领先的保罗得票22.8%,排第三位;金里奇得票13%;佩里得票10%,巴赫曼得票6%。
    爱荷华打响共和党总统提名人“前哨战”。
    共和党参选人,星期二做出最后冲刺,罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)满怀信心地预言,自己能胜出,金里奇(Newt Gingrich)称,这名对手为说谎者。
    CNN报道,多数党团会议,将在东部时间晚上9点结束,最终结果,将于10点30分出来。爱荷华作为政治焦点的时刻,也将结束,至少到大选之前。
    爱荷华州,星期二天气晴朗,但气温很低。爱荷华人认为,下雪,是对伦·保罗有利的天气,因为,只有保罗的支持者会,不顾风雪,前去投票。但,今天没有下雪。
    雅虎新闻报道,就在爱荷华党团会议开始之前几个小时,预测市场Betfair and Intrade的数据显示,罗姆尼可能在全美国首次投票中,胜算超过50%。这是罗姆尼的强力复苏,他在12月大部分时间,都落后于金里奇和伦·保罗(Ron Paul)。这是预测市场最近几天,对爱荷华州发出的四大变化之一。
    自从上个星期四,保罗已经从50%的胜算概率,下降到25%;桑托洛姆(Rick Santorum)已经从后排参选人,变成严肃的竞争者。最有意思的是,预测市场原来给予金里奇60%的胜算机会,现在,把他和其他参选人搁置一旁。
    对于最后一天的竞选活动,《 华盛顿邮报》说,经过几个月的辩论、参选人讲过千言万语之后,共和党的选战,星期二进入爱荷华最终阶段。他们只有侮辱对手的时间。
    宾夕法尼亚前参议员桑托洛姆,星期二上午,对福克斯新闻(Fox News)记者说,“伦·保罗令人作呕。”他抨击伦·保罗在爱荷华使用自动电话,告诉选民,口头激烈反对堕胎的桑托洛姆,实际上,支持堕胎权利。伦·保罗的竞选团队,没有立即做出回应。
    保罗星期一,谈到桑托洛姆时说,“非常自由”。保罗的理由就是,在任参议员期间,桑托洛姆很少要求削减政府预算。
    金里奇在哥伦比亚广播公司,星期二上午的节目中称,罗姆尼“撒谎者”。他星期天,已经给罗姆尼挂上“说谎”标签,只是说法不同:“某人为了当选总统,而对你们说谎,他当上总统之后,还会对你们说谎。”

    Obama preparing to return end of the vacation, “Rush,” Time :2012 -01-04
    January 3, Obama and his wife Michelle and two daughters arrived in the White House.
    President Barack Obama in Hawaii to spend a short holiday after Christmas and New Year;
    3 morning, arrived in Washington, immediately re-election campaign to re-open non-stop work. While the Republican Iowa caucus campaign focus falls on the occasion of the meeting, Obama can not relax, last night, to Iowa, for online dialogue with supporters, “Taking a Rush,” a number of potential Republican opponents, full back their fierce criticism.
    Obama rushed to Iowa last night, hosted live online dialogue program;
    The next day, go to Cleveland, Ohio, delivered a speech on economic issues, ready to refute the economic platform of the Republican challenger.
    After the campaign trip, Obama will return to Washington to face very difficult to extend the wage tax cut debate. Parliament, after intense debate, on Christmas Eve, agreed to extend the tax cuts for two months, Obama so on until 23 days before the holiday began. Members of Congress later this month, will reopen the debate, Obama hopes to extend the tax cuts for one year.
    White House officials said, to extend the wage tax cuts, Obama’s agenda this year, and finally a “must do” of legislation, the President in the last year of the current term strategy will focus on administrative measures, without Congress By seeking to draw the line with the unpopular Congress.
    Aides said Obama did not forget political affairs during the holiday, took some time to think about the 24th of this month will deliver State of the Union,’s message agenda, will serve as the basis of his campaign platform.

    Voting results for the Iowa primaries, Mitt Romney and Sang Tuomu support rate of 25%, however, Romney received 30,015 votes, Sang Tuomu received 30,007 votes. The former than the latter, gaining more votes than 8 votes to narrowly win. Paul’s support was 21%.
    Tuesday, Romney changed the previous bearish Iowa, New Hampshire campaign strategy value. He said it expects that they can win in the Iowa primaries. He told Fox News: “I am ready to challenge Obama.” “I create jobs in Massachusetts, created in the country than Obama to be more.” Romney said: “I like to use my results, Obama came to power to do things and compare. ”
    Another candidate Sangtuo Mu said, “I travels to 99 counties, Iowa, was to see their efforts paid off.”; “Voter enthusiasm, of course, the momentum of our campaign is also fresh. ”
    Paul has said, Sangtuo Mu is a liberal;
    Other candidates said that Paul’s foreign policy is extremely dangerous. On Tuesday, the Paul campaign to discredit Sang Tuomu team after Sangtuo Mu said Paul acts, extremely disgusting. Paul told Fox News interview, said Sang Tuomu foreign aid policy, thinking out of tune with mainstream conservatives.
    Gingrich, and Romney’s bickering, the upgrade. Gingrich told CBS interview, said, “Romney is a liar,”; “Romney even though I pretend not to participate in smear ads, but, in fact, he is a murderer.” Romney in told Fox News interview, retorted: “If you can not challenge Obama, they should give way.”
    In the polling stations at the entrance poll, the most by 17-year-old Paul and 29-year-old young voters behind;
    Romney has been favored by voters over the age of 65;
    Sang Tuomu support of the masses, in the middle, that is, voters aged 45 to 64 years.
    Vote is expected out soon.
    Perry of the Iowa Republican primary candidates for outcome disappointed, he said, run for the Republican presidential nomination will be suspended.
    Perry said the voters of Iowa, Iowa primaries ended, he returned to his hometown in Texas, rather than planned – to the South Carolina votes. He said: “Iowa primary results, I decided to return to Texas to assess the primary election results and to reconsider the road.”
    Although he did not finally announced withdrawal, his tone, this will have been revealed. Earlier, in Iowa, Perry made a speech, thank the voters of his support, said when he read the letter from a volunteer, Perry voices are choked, he said: “This is the best experience of my life . “;” this election will affect the United States can not be on the right path of development. ”
    Iowa poll shows Perry ranked fifth, Sang Tuomu and Romney tied for first. When in August 2011, Perry announced his campaign immediately after been considered a leader in the Republican camp, a huge fund-raising capabilities and long-term as Texas governor’s fame, so Perry is rapidly becoming the most challenging characters. However, he was the performance in the debate, some misnomer. During the debate, often embarrassing, and finally to Perry missed the Republican presidential nominations. In the final stage before the Iowa primaries, Perry’s campaign bus, across 44 cities in canvassing, expectations and Romney fight for social conservative voters, but ultimately did not get voter support.
    Perry’s campaign has been plagued by poor performance of the debate, polls show his approval rating in October 2011, a decrease of 20%, in November 2011 debate, Perry said that he became president After three government agencies will be cut, but surprisingly, he does not remember the third to cut the name of government agency, only to say the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Education. The performance of this debate, so he left the position of nominee farther.
    Perry has touted his 10 years as governor of Texas, to promote economic growth, create employment, to portray itself as a Washington outsiders. In order to distinguish themselves from other candidates, Perry proposes to give a 20% personal income tax rate to pay the option, he put forward a corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%.

    Iowa Republican voters Tuesday, from 7 pm, at 809 caucus sites together, and cast a presidential candidate in 2012 to select the first ballot. ABC News (ABC News), said Paul London, Santo Lom and Romney, now it seems to keep pace.
    “Washington Post” to the latest statistics 10 pm, Romney 23.4% of the vote, ranked first;; Santo Lom 23% of the vote, second; Paul was the leading vote 22.8%, ranked third ; Gingrich 13% of the vote; Perry, 10% of the vote, Bachmann votes 6%.
    Iowa started the Republican presidential nominee, “skirmish.”
    Republican candidate, to make the final sprint on Tuesday, Romney (Mitt Romney) confidently predicted that he can win, Gingrich (Newt Gingrich), said the name of the opponent a liar.
    CNN reported that the majority caucus, will end at 9 pm Eastern time, the end result will be out at 10:30. Iowa as a political focus of the moment, it will end, at least prior to the election.
    Iowa, Tuesday, sunny weather, but the temperature is very low. Iowa people think, snow, Paul London is the favorable weather, because only Paul’s supporters, regardless of snow, come to vote. However, today there is no snow.
    Yahoo News reported on the Iowa caucus a few hours before the meeting, Betfair and Intrade prediction market data shows that Romney may vote in the United States for the first time in more than 50% chance of winning. This is Romney’s strong recovery, most of his time in December, are behind the London Gingrich and Paul (Ron Paul). This is the forecast market in recent days, the state of Iowa to issue one of the four changes.

    Since last Thursday, Paul has a 50% chance of winning from the probability drops to 25%; Santo Lom (Rick Santorum) has moved from the back candidates into serious contenders. The most interesting is that the market had forecast 60% given to Newt Gingrich’s chances of winning the opportunity, now, he and other candidates aside.

    For the last day of the campaign, “Washington Post” said that after months of debate, the candidates have said a thousand words, the Republican campaign, Iowa on Tuesday into the final stage. They only insult the opponent’s time.
    Former Pennsylvania Senator Santo Lom, Tuesday morning, on Fox News (Fox News) told reporters, “Lun Paul disgusting.” He attacked Paul London in Iowa use the automated telephone, to tell voters, intense verbal Santo Lom against abortion, in fact, support for abortion rights. Lun Paul’s campaign team, did not immediately respond.
    Paul Monday, talking about Santo Shalom said, “very free.” Paul’s reason is that during the term senator, Santo Lom rarely require cuts in government budgets.
    Gingrich on CBS, Tuesday morning’s program, said Romney “liars.” Sunday, he has given Mitt Romney put up “lying” label, but recently said: “For someone elected president, while you lie, after he became president, but also lying to you.”

  2. 美国总统大选开锣 分析称,奥巴马连任优势明显,2012年01月04日
    1月2日,奥巴马结束度假返回华盛顿。
    1月2日,美国艾奥瓦州,支持率领先的共和党竞选人罗姆尼和选民在一起。
    “马拉松式”美国总统大选开锣
    共和党在艾奥瓦州举行首场预选,6名竞选人参选,马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼支持率领跑

    当地时间3日晚,美国一个人口只有300万,面积不足15万平方公里的小州——艾奥瓦州将吸引全美国、乃至全世界的目光。当天,美国共和党将在这里举行总统大选首场预选,由此拉开2012年美国总统选举序幕。美国总统大选程序复杂,将持续近一年的时间。在繁杂的预选程序后,最重要的全国选举,将在今年11月举行。

    1700场会议选代表

      3日晚,6名来自共和党的总统候选人将接受艾奥瓦州大约12万共和党支持者的“挑选”,这些支持者将在艾奥瓦州99个县,大约1700个地点举行会议,选出该州28个代表,参加预计于8月举行的共和党全国代表大会。全国代表大会将选出代表共和党的总统候选人,与民主党总统候选人最后角逐总统宝座。

    尽管不是直接选举本人,对共和党6名候选人而言,只要赢得多数代表支持,就被认为赢得了该州预选。赢得最底层选民的支持,是这一切的最关键。

      目前,支持率领先的三名竞选人,分别是马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼、得克萨斯州众议员保罗,以及宾夕法尼亚州前参议员桑托勒姆。此外,有前众议院议长金里奇、得克萨斯州州长佩里,以及明尼苏达州众议员巴克曼参选。

      美国前驻华大使洪博培,已宣布参加共和党总统候选人的竞选,因支持率垫底,洪博培已基本放弃了艾奥瓦州的选战,全力备战新罕布什尔州预选。

      共和党热烈,民主党安静

      在共和党方面紧锣密鼓的展开预选之时,民主党方面依然静悄悄。总统奥巴马有充分时间准备最后的决战,目前的共和党预选,刚好为他提供了了解对手的良机。
    美国白宫2日说,奥巴马将于当地时间4日赴俄亥俄州,在当地一所中学,就经济问题发表讲话。分析人士认为,2012年美国经济的发展态势,将成为奥巴马是否能竞选连任的关键。

      同共和党一样,民主党方面将在各州选举该党全国大会代表,再由这些代表,选出民主党总统候选人。

      大选程序

      民主、共和两党在全国各州及首都预选(开会选举或直接投票)

      选出两党全国代表大会代表

      两党召开全国代表大会,确定总统候选人

      两党总统候选人展开全国竞选

      全国选民投票选出总统“选举人”

      由总统“选举人”投票选举总统

      共和党“另类”多; 奥巴马“偷着乐”

      从历史上看,由于以往最终胜出的共和党总统候选人,多数在艾奥瓦州和新罕布什尔州拔得头筹,所以,这两州预选结果格外引发关注。

      从目前民调来看,罗姆尼、保罗和桑托勒姆,在艾奥瓦州名列前三名,不出意外的话,胜者将从这三人中产生。罗姆尼因拥有2008年参选经验、州长经历、充沛的竞选资金及强大的竞选团队等,被认为可能成为共和党“自然而然的总统候选人”。
    其政策主张多次变化,被指“虚假保守派”,其摩门教背景,让基督教主流社会“心存疑虑”。

      76岁的保罗是共和党内“另类”,其部分主张非常极端,如一旦当选,就废除能源部、教育部、商务部和美联储,主张美国退出联合国等,这让共和党主流对他敬而远之。
    桑托勒姆在一些社会问题上,立场极端,如,强烈反对同性恋及堕胎等。

      就共和党预选整体形势而言,金里奇,有最后胜出可能。由于从政经验丰富、政策主张保守、口才出众以及知名度高,金里奇在最近两月,选情异军突起。但他的历史包袱很重,如,两次婚姻都因婚外恋结束,任议长时,导致政府关门被迫辞职等。

      对奥巴马而言,不受丑闻困扰、没有出现重大政策失误、拥有强大竞选团队和筹款优势,以及击毙拉登、通过“幕后领导”推翻卡扎菲的统治、结束伊拉克战等,都为他成功连任,加分不少。如美国经济疲弱长久得不到改观,也将拖累奥巴马的选情。
    无论如何,共和党内“非主流”、“另类”和“极端”参选人脱颖而出,显示奥巴马应不会遭遇强有力的挑战。

    U.S. presidential election kicked off analysis, Obama re-election have obvious advantages, January 4, 2012
    January 2, Obama returned to Washington the end of vacation.
    January 2, U.S. Iowa, support for the leading Republican candidates Mitt Romney and voters together.
    “Marathon” kicked off the U.S. presidential election
    Republicans held the first primaries in Iowa, six election candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney led the run support

    Evening local time, the United States with a population of only 300 million and an area less than 15 million square kilometers of small states – Iowa, will attract the United States, and the world’s attention. The same day, the U.S. Republican Party will be held here first presidential election primaries, which opened off the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Complexity of the U.S. presidential election process, will continue for nearly a year. After pre-selection process in the complex, the most important national elections will be held in November this year.

    1700 field representative to the meeting

    3 night, six from the Republican Party’s presidential candidate will receive about 120,000 Iowa Republican supporters of the “selection”, these supporters will be 99 counties in Iowa, about 1700 locations meeting 28 elected representatives of the state, held in August is expected to attend the Republican National Convention. National Congress will elect representatives to the Republican presidential candidate, and Democratic presidential candidates for the presidency race.

    Although I am not a direct election, six candidates for the Republican Party, as long as the majority of representatives support to win, it was the state that won the primaries. The bottom to win support from voters, is the most critical of all this.

    Currently, support for the leading three candidates, namely, the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Paul, Texas Congressman and former Pennsylvania Senator Santo Salem. In addition, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as well as Minnesota Rep. Bachmann election.

    Former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, the Republican presidential candidates have been announced to participate in the election, because support for the bottom, Huntsman has basically abandoned the Iowa campaign, fully prepare for the New Hampshire primaries.

    Republicans warm, quiet Democrats

    On the Republican side of intense pre-start, the Democrats remained silent. President Obama has sufficient time to prepare for the final battle, the current Republican primaries, just as he provided a good opportunity to understand the opponent.
    The White House said on Tuesday, Obama will go to Ohio 4 local time, at a local high school, made a speech on economic issues. Analysts believe that the 2012 development trend of the U.S. economy, whether Obama will be the key to re-election.

    Like with the Republicans, Democrats in the state on behalf of the National Assembly election of the party, then these representatives elect the Democratic presidential candidate.

    Election procedures

    Democratic and Republican primaries in states across the country and the capital (or direct the election meeting to vote)

    National Congress elected representatives of the two parties

    Parties to convene a national congress to determine the presidential candidate

    National campaign launched by both presidential candidates

    Voters across the country vote for president, “electoral”

    By the President “electors” to vote for president

    Republican “alternative” and more; Obama “smiling”

    From a historical point of view, thanks to the final to win the Republican presidential candidate, mostly in Iowa and New Hampshire come out on top, so the results of the two extra Hampshire raised concerns.

    View from the current poll, Romney, Paul and Santo Haslem, among the top three in Iowa, no accident, then, the winner from the three men produced. Romney because it has experience in 2008 election, Governor experience, plenty of campaign funds and a strong campaign team, etc., are considered likely to become the Republican Party, “a natural candidate for president.”
    Several changes in its policies, accused of “false conservative”, the Mormon background, so the Christian mainstream society “skeptical.”

    76-year-old Paul is the Republican Party “alternative” and some of its advocates are very extreme, as if elected, would abolish the Department of Energy, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Commerce and the Federal Reserve, that the U.S. withdraw from the UN, etc., which makes him turn away from the Republican mainstream.
    Santo Haslem in some social issues, the extreme position, for example, strongly opposed to homosexuality and abortion.

    In terms of the overall situation on the Republican primaries, Newt Gingrich, may have finally won. As an experienced politician, conservative policy advocates, superior eloquence and high-profile, Gingrich in the last two months, the sudden emergence of the election. But his heavy burden of history, for example, two marriages ended because of affair, when any speaker, led to the closing was forced to resign and so on.

    For Obama, not scandals, no major policy mistakes, with a strong campaign team and fundraising advantage, and killed Osama bin Laden, through the “behind the scenes leadership” to overthrow Gaddafi’s rule, end the Iraq war, etc., are He re-election, a lot of extra points. Not as weak U.S. economy long-term change, it will drag on Obama’s election.
    In any case, the Republicans of “non-mainstream”, “alternative” and “extreme” candidates stand out, show Obama should not face a strong challenge.

评论已关闭。