美国总统大选开锣 分析称,奥巴马连任优势明显,2012年01月04日 1月2日，奥巴马结束度假返回华盛顿。 1月2日，美国艾奥瓦州，支持率领先的共和党竞选人罗姆尼和选民在一起。 “马拉松式”美国总统大选开锣 共和党在艾奥瓦州举行首场预选，6名竞选人参选，马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼支持率领跑 当地时间3日晚，美国一个人口只有300万，面积不足15万平方公里的小州——艾奥瓦州将吸引全美国、乃至全世界的目光。当天，美国共和党将在这里举行总统大选首场预选，由此拉开2012年美国总统选举序幕。美国总统大选程序复杂，将持续近一年的时间。在繁杂的预选程序后，最重要的全国选举,将在今年11月举行。 1700场会议选代表 3日晚，6名来自共和党的总统候选人将接受艾奥瓦州大约12万共和党支持者的“挑选”，这些支持者将在艾奥瓦州99个县,大约1700个地点举行会议，选出该州28个代表，参加预计于8月举行的共和党全国代表大会。全国代表大会将选出代表共和党的总统候选人，与民主党总统候选人最后角逐总统宝座。 尽管不是直接选举本人，对共和党6名候选人而言，只要赢得多数代表支持，就被认为赢得了该州预选。赢得最底层选民的支持，是这一切的最关键。 目前，支持率领先的三名竞选人,分别是马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼、得克萨斯州众议员保罗，以及宾夕法尼亚州前参议员桑托勒姆。此外,有前众议院议长金里奇、得克萨斯州州长佩里，以及明尼苏达州众议员巴克曼参选。 美国前驻华大使洪博培,已宣布参加共和党总统候选人的竞选,因支持率垫底，洪博培已基本放弃了艾奥瓦州的选战，全力备战新罕布什尔州预选。 共和党热烈,民主党安静 在共和党方面紧锣密鼓的展开预选之时，民主党方面依然静悄悄。总统奥巴马有充分时间准备最后的决战，目前的共和党预选，刚好为他提供了了解对手的良机。 美国白宫2日说，奥巴马将于当地时间4日赴俄亥俄州，在当地一所中学,就经济问题发表讲话。分析人士认为，2012年美国经济的发展态势，将成为奥巴马是否能竞选连任的关键。 同共和党一样，民主党方面将在各州选举该党全国大会代表，再由这些代表,选出民主党总统候选人。 大选程序 民主、共和两党在全国各州及首都预选(开会选举或直接投票) 选出两党全国代表大会代表 两党召开全国代表大会,确定总统候选人 两党总统候选人展开全国竞选 全国选民投票选出总统“选举人” 由总统“选举人”投票选举总统 共和党“另类”多; 奥巴马“偷着乐” 从历史上看，由于以往最终胜出的共和党总统候选人,多数在艾奥瓦州和新罕布什尔州拔得头筹，所以,这两州预选结果格外引发关注。 从目前民调来看，罗姆尼、保罗和桑托勒姆,在艾奥瓦州名列前三名，不出意外的话，胜者将从这三人中产生。罗姆尼因拥有2008年参选经验、州长经历、充沛的竞选资金及强大的竞选团队等，被认为可能成为共和党“自然而然的总统候选人”。 其政策主张多次变化，被指“虚假保守派”，其摩门教背景,让基督教主流社会“心存疑虑”。 76岁的保罗是共和党内“另类”，其部分主张非常极端，如一旦当选,就废除能源部、教育部、商务部和美联储，主张美国退出联合国等，这让共和党主流对他敬而远之。 桑托勒姆在一些社会问题上,立场极端，如,强烈反对同性恋及堕胎等。 就共和党预选整体形势而言，金里奇,有最后胜出可能。由于从政经验丰富、政策主张保守、口才出众以及知名度高，金里奇在最近两月,选情异军突起。但他的历史包袱很重，如,两次婚姻都因婚外恋结束，任议长时,导致政府关门被迫辞职等。 对奥巴马而言，不受丑闻困扰、没有出现重大政策失误、拥有强大竞选团队和筹款优势，以及击毙拉登、通过“幕后领导”推翻卡扎菲的统治、结束伊拉克战等，都为他成功连任,加分不少。如美国经济疲弱长久得不到改观，也将拖累奥巴马的选情。 无论如何，共和党内“非主流”、“另类”和“极端”参选人脱颖而出，显示奥巴马应不会遭遇强有力的挑战。 U.S. presidential election kicked off analysis, Obama re-election have obvious advantages, January 4, 2012 January 2, Obama returned to Washington the end of vacation. January 2, U.S. Iowa, support for the leading Republican candidates Mitt Romney and voters together. “Marathon” kicked off the U.S. presidential election Republicans held the first primaries in Iowa, six election candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney led the run support Evening local time, the United States with a population of only 300 million and an area less than 15 million square kilometers of small states – Iowa, will attract the United States, and the world’s attention. The same day, the U.S. Republican Party will be held here first presidential election primaries, which opened off the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Complexity of the U.S. presidential election process, will continue for nearly a year. After pre-selection process in the complex, the most important national elections will be held in November this year. 1700 field representative to the meeting 3 night, six from the Republican Party’s presidential candidate will receive about 120,000 Iowa Republican supporters of the “selection”, these supporters will be 99 counties in Iowa, about 1700 locations meeting 28 elected representatives of the state, held in August is expected to attend the Republican National Convention. National Congress will elect representatives to the Republican presidential candidate, and Democratic presidential candidates for the presidency race. Although I am not a direct election, six candidates for the Republican Party, as long as the majority of representatives support to win, it was the state that won the primaries. The bottom to win support from voters, is the most critical of all this. Currently, support for the leading three candidates, namely, the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Paul, Texas Congressman and former Pennsylvania Senator Santo Salem. In addition, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as well as Minnesota Rep. Bachmann election. Former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, the Republican presidential candidates have been announced to participate in the election, because support for the bottom, Huntsman has basically abandoned the Iowa campaign, fully prepare for the New Hampshire primaries. Republicans warm, quiet Democrats On the Republican side of intense pre-start, the Democrats remained silent. President Obama has sufficient time to prepare for the final battle, the current Republican primaries, just as he provided a good opportunity to understand the opponent. The White House said on Tuesday, Obama will go to Ohio 4 local time, at a local high school, made a speech on economic issues. Analysts believe that the 2012 development trend of the U.S. economy, whether Obama will be the key to re-election. Like with the Republicans, Democrats in the state on behalf of the National Assembly election of the party, then these representatives elect the Democratic presidential candidate. Election procedures Democratic and Republican primaries in states across the country and the capital (or direct the election meeting to vote) National Congress elected representatives of the two parties Parties to convene a national congress to determine the presidential candidate National campaign launched by both presidential candidates Voters across the country vote for president, “electoral” By the President “electors” to vote for president Republican “alternative” and more; Obama “smiling” From a historical point of view, thanks to the final to win the Republican presidential candidate, mostly in Iowa and New Hampshire come out on top, so the results of the two extra Hampshire raised concerns. View from the current poll, Romney, Paul and Santo Haslem, among the top three in Iowa, no accident, then, the winner from the three men produced. Romney because it has experience in 2008 election, Governor experience, plenty of campaign funds and a strong campaign team, etc., are considered likely to become the Republican Party, “a natural candidate for president.” Several changes in its policies, accused of “false conservative”, the Mormon background, so the Christian mainstream society “skeptical.” 76-year-old Paul is the Republican Party “alternative” and some of its advocates are very extreme, as if elected, would abolish the Department of Energy, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Commerce and the Federal Reserve, that the U.S. withdraw from the UN, etc., which makes him turn away from the Republican mainstream. Santo Haslem in some social issues, the extreme position, for example, strongly opposed to homosexuality and abortion. In terms of the overall situation on the Republican primaries, Newt Gingrich, may have finally won. As an experienced politician, conservative policy advocates, superior eloquence and high-profile, Gingrich in the last two months, the sudden emergence of the election. But his heavy burden of history, for example, two marriages ended because of affair, when any speaker, led to the closing was forced to resign and so on. For Obama, not scandals, no major policy mistakes, with a strong campaign team and fundraising advantage, and killed Osama bin Laden, through the “behind the scenes leadership” to overthrow Gaddafi’s rule, end the Iraq war, etc., are He re-election, a lot of extra points. Not as weak U.S. economy long-term change, it will drag on Obama’s election. In any case, the Republicans of “non-mainstream”, “alternative” and “extreme” candidates stand out, show Obama should not face a strong challenge.