2012 for the presidency
December 1, in the U.S. capital Washington, the White House, U.S. President Barack Obama with two daughters, participate in the national Christmas tree light up ceremony.
French President – Nicolas Sarkozy
Chairman of the National Front in France – Le Pen Marina
Russian scholar says, “maple” combination, there is likely to continue to take turns in power for 24 years.
Four years of “donkey like a war.”
2012, destined to be a troubled year, in the year, the United States, France and Russia, will hold a presidential election. Large country’s presidential election, the most influence in the world, naturally the most concern.
Mexico, South Korea, Spain, Mongolia, Venezuela, Dominica, East Timor, Iceland, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Sierra Leone, Lesotho, Yemen and other countries that will hold presidential or parliamentary elections. So up to the election, 2012 will become a “election year.”
U.S. presidential election, now, Democratic and Republican, for the general election, has argued on economic and livelihood issues, the strength of the two parties very, very competitive.
Obama suffered from since he took office, no improvement in the economy, re-election situation is not optimistic; no particularly strong candidate for the Republican Party who worry about;
Candidates, each with a distinct disadvantage.
Russia’s presidential election, no suspense, “maple combination” in power, will continue. The twists and turns before the election, the world media by surprise. Russian opposition, because of “Duma election fraud”, held mass protests, which makes used to smooth the ruling United Russia party felt the challenge; wealthy Prokhorov’s election, the election so that the situation in Russia is more complex.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the French presidential election situation –
French Socialist Party presidential candidate Francois Waao Round the loudest voices, in this election, was pinned;
French far-right political parties, Marina Le Pen, the strength should not be overlooked, the European economic difficulties, it is possible to let her become a “dark horse”;
Former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin 多米尼克加, Sarkozy will seek re-election more difficult.
U.S.: Obama hit the “middle” brand
U.S. President Barack Obama, on June 6, 奥萨沃托米 small town in Kansas, published a interesting speech, which is seen as a prelude to the re-election campaign opened its economic program. In his speech, he described the populist economic picture, and commitment: to provide for all “fair distribution of wealth and opportunities.”
He severely criticized the Republican free-market ideology, repeat Roosevelt’s “new nationalism”, stressed the importance of state intervention.
Obama in his speech, the middle class strongly emphasized the importance of the U.S. economy, which is obviously playing the “middle-class card.” Earlier, Obama’s series of initiatives to show this. Obama recently, the introduction of economic policy, there is a conducive to the contents of the middle class: the extension of middle-class tax cuts, while the termination of tax cuts for the wealthy. But even before the Obama people to control the anger of the gap between rich and poor, adding to the financial industry criticism. Please the middle class, while Obama offended some of Wall Street and the rich.
This year, Republican candidate Mitt Romney raised money from Wall Street, far more than Obama, from that point of view, the financial people on Obama, has become increasingly alienated.
To see the Republican Party, who is the “leader”
President Barack Obama, has been the Democratic Party, slated as the only candidate, so the general election next year’s first major highlights is that competition for the Republican presidential candidate. Currently, the Republican presidential candidate candidate, mainly the United States former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Was a popular candidate Rick Perry, for debate competition, the poor performance behind Gingrich and Mitt Romney;
Known as the “dark horse presidential election,” Herman Kane, withdraw from the race.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, presidential candidate in the election, and has many advantages: financial strength, business experience, with a background in politics. His fundraising ability, this year, Wall Street, raised lots of money, and made part of the financial support of the people. After taking office, detailed his share of government spending programs, to give him extra points. His Republican, has a good reputation, and its public support rate has been relatively stable, on several occasions in the polls, ahead of other Republican candidates.
“Infidel” status, he was elected as a Republican presidential candidate, even the biggest obstacle to the White House.
Romney obvious advantages, but the Republican mainstream conservatives, Romney has been looking for the best candidate instead of on because he is Mormon.
His biggest rival, Newt Gingrich, is a firm Republican, in 1995, to 1999, he served as Speaker of U.S. House of Representatives. He led the Republican Party, in 1995, replacing the Democrats as the largest parties, the U.S. House of Representatives, the end of the Democratic Party in the House of Commons – the biggest party of up to 42-year history.
Gingrich in the U.S. Republican presidential candidate this year, a new round of televised debates, outstanding performance, support for increased sharply, and received the support of the Republican mainstream conservatives.
“New York Daily News,” published in the latest poll, Gingrich among the Republican candidates, in the lead, he ranked second with Romney’s public support rate was 38%: 17%, with 21 percentage point lead.
In another national poll, Gingrich, with a slight advantage, leading President Barack Obama.
Gingrich slight advantage for Obama, 45%: 43%, with 2 percent lead.
Gingrich recently, the support rate rose more than Romney, in addition to a TV debate competition for outstanding performance factors, more important, businessman Herman Cain is due to withdraw from the election.
Gingrich and Kane, are representative of conservatives, a considerable part of Kane’s followers, in favor of Gingrich.
Obama re-election situation, is not optimistic
Many factors about the U.S. presidential election, the election Throughout history, we find that the support rate and economic performance is the impact on re-election, the two most important factors, and sometimes, not so accurate. From the U.S. presidential election history, a president in office at the end of the third year when the support rate is an indication that an important indicator of its ability to re-election. Reagan, in November 1983 when the rate of support rose to 51%, when the U.S. economy, the economic recession in the previous year, showing V-, rapid-shaped recovery, this is his first final victory signs.
Since 2010, Obama’s support has been maintained at 50%.
CBS’s latest poll –
54% of American voters oppose President Obama’s re-election; only 41% of voters think: Obama should re-election.
Obama’s overall approval rating was maintained at 40%, down from its four predecessors in the same period of time of the vote.
Obama in dealing with economic issues, received only 33% of the recognition is considered to be – a serious down its support for the main reason.
Historically, presidential approval ratings below 50%, indicating very dissatisfied voters to the President. Some critics have argued that if the incumbent presidential candidate in the general election support for the previous year, less than 50%, the President, will miss the re-election.
In the presidential term of four years, economic performance, an important factor is whether the re-election. The media, in economic terms, very sympathetic to Obama, that he caught up with the economic downturn, environment, and inherited a mess.
“The New York Times” has written that Obama’s approach to the debt crisis, too poor, damaged his power base, so that voters, shaken, then, using the risk policies in parliament, leading to a market panic, and the occurrence the downgrade controversy.
American voters are very real, the ability to handle crises in Obama being questioned, unable to lead the U.S. economy is recovering and the case will turn to hopes of his opponents, which is obviously seeking re-election of Barack Obama, is extremely negative.
If Obama is lucky enough, election-year economic situation has improved, Obama re-election situation may be reversed. Reduce the unemployment rate, for Obama, is a positive signal, in the coming year is good or bad economic data, or will Obama re-election situation, have a greater impact.
Historically, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower and Truman, through the term of the recession in the post, have successfully re-elected.
Of course, Obama can re-election, Republican presidential candidates and their opponents and overall performance, are also relevant. If the Republicans elect a poor candidate, Barack Obama in the November general election next year, the opportunity to win re-election, will be larger.
France: Sarkozy suffered three rival
The 2012 French presidential election, leaving only four months, from the current situation, France’s largest opposition party – the Socialist Party veteran Francois Waao Landes, and far-right National Front party primary 席玛丽娜勒庞, is recognized as the most powerful challenge to incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy’s presidential candidate.
Sarkozy since he took office, the cabinet member bribery scandal, the controversial pension reform bill, and had promised economic policy, become the pied piper of reality, the support rate, all the way down. Into 2011, his poll ratings, was less than 40%.
Kahn accident, Hollande emerge – Hollande is “in the left, the right” policy bias, more moderate, the revival of “French Dream” campaign slogan, and the deficit reduction program, has been the lower classes support. In preparation for the 2012 presidential election, he served in the French Parliament Chairman Corrèze, while regularly with political supporters, maintain exchanges and visit all parts of society branch France, François Hollande, the positive contact alma mater alumni to help his advice. In the International Monetary Fund, former president of Kahn alleged sexual assault incident, and Kahn, the same as the voice of François Hollande, the Socialist Party, gradually increased.
Hollande is currently a loud voice, the leftist presidential candidate, the lack of government service experience in the European debt crisis and the immigration process, there is no convincing solution to plan, thus, questioned his handling domestic and foreign affairs.
Marina Le Pen’s campaign strength, should not be overlooked. As early as six months ago, Le Pen’s popularity has been rising, especially in working class communities. At that time, a poll in France, Le Pen’s support in the working class, far higher than other competitors. The working class, only 15% of voters who cast votes, it is the intention to represent the grassroots people.
Sarkozy disappointed right-wing voters, will be added to support Le Pen’s camp.
French President Francois democratic trade union Xie Lake believes that the reason why the National Front gradually by the public’s favor, because Sarkozy does not deliver on his promise when he took office, led to the loss of political confidence.
Former French Prime Minister, halfway, out spoiler – in the eyes of the French people gathered in Hollande and Le Pen, the former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin 多米尼克加, on March 11, officially announced in 2012 the French President the election. Dominique de Villepin, the French right of an important figure in the right-wing voters have their own ticket bunker. As the lawsuits in recent years, Dominique de Villepin’s public support rate, continue to decline.
In the case of low support, Dominique de Villepin, a short time, the probability of staged drama reversed, negligible. However, Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy, over the years, the relationship discord, the two, who belong to the UMP, Dominique de Villepin announced his candidacy at this time, there are spoiler means. According to the French Constitution, only the first ballot, two candidates received the most votes in order to enter the second round of the competition. The latest poll from the point of view, Hollande and Sarkozy, among the top two, followed by, is Le Pen and the centrist candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy and the gap between them is not obvious. Dominique de Villepin’s election, is bound in the right ticket bunker, with Sarkozy to grab votes. This will undoubtedly bring down Nicolas Sarkozy in the presidential election first round of voting in the vote, Le Pen and centrist candidates to bring turnaround opportunities, Sarkozy eliminated in the first round of elections.
Russia: Putin, or difficult to win the first round
Russia’s 2012 presidential election, less than three months, is widely believed that President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin among the “castling”, almost no suspense, sudden large-scale protests, is to feel a certain pressure the Russian government.
Being called a preview of the 2012 presidential election in Russia’s State Duma elections, “political party” United Russia Party won nearly 50 percent of the vote. After the announcement of election results, in addition to all the non-party United Russia party, are the election results, expressed strong dissatisfaction with that, the election process, there is a serious fraud. Subsequently, the occurrence of several protest rallies Moscow, December 10, the number of protests, more than 4 million people, protesters demanded re-election to the Duma.
Most of the protesters, but expression of long-standing dissatisfaction with bureaucracy and corruption, hope those in power, to listen to the population, not want to change the regime. This gives the ruling party, sounded the alarm, the ruling party in the short term, the protest to “compromise” is unlikely.
Canada, “Globe and Mail,” said the ruling party and do not intend to re-Putin Duma elections, but does not intend to change the maple pattern.
Russia’s latest poll, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s public support rate fell to historic lows, it may be difficult in the next presidential election, first round win.
Russian Public Opinion Research Center data, the support of the Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, the rate of 31%, second only to Putin. On this data, if Putin and Zyuganov into the second round of elections, Putin won the election, may still be quite large.