世界，本週已經過去的，小事記1，2，3，… ；世界活躍的,人類名錄1，2，3，… ; 網絡檔案站;舊聞往事,非新聞!
English, Japanese, automatic translation by Google; subject to Chinese
UK 直升機銷售集團公司董事局主席:Mr.George Chen = Mr.Geoorge S. Chen ：
去年，作为业绩表现名列前茅的马修斯亚洲成长型基金(Matthews Asia Growth fund)的牵头经理，石田再次来到孟加拉，这是他自结束联合国的使命后,首次回到这个国家。这次的所见,让他大吃一惊：这里,上演着一场如火如荼的投资狂潮，这一切,让他感觉似曾相识。
马克•莫比乌斯(Mark Mobius)是一位投资新兴市场的先行者，他为富兰克林邓普顿投资公司(Franklin Templeton)管理着大约500亿美元资产。近来,他一直在买进罗马尼亚的房地产、尼日利亚的银行以及哈萨克斯坦的石油股份。Wasatch新兴市场小型股基金(Wasatch Emerging Markets Small Cap fund)的联合基金经理劳拉•格利兹(Laura Geritz),今年夏天,同加纳的一些企业CEO,以及当地投资者有过接洽。目前,加纳的全国性股票交易市场上,有大约30只股票在公开交易。
投资领域格局发生变化的背后,有很多原因，比如,中国和印度经济增长速度放慢，新的消费市场崛起，以及债务危机,在国际舞台上,出人意料的演变方式等等。当然,还有一个更大的原因：旧有的投资方式,已经不再奏效了。想想看，在截至2010年12月的,过去10年中，基准指数摩根士丹利新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets index)涨幅,比标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)整整超出250个百分点；而那之后，该指数则比标准普尔指数,落后了7个百分点。在这个领域,已有20年投资经验的玛利亚•尼格里特-格鲁森(Maria Negrete-Gruson)称，“不是说新兴市场的机会已经用尽了，只不过不是出现在同样的地方了。”她目前,为艺匠基金(Artisan Funds)管理着近十亿美元资产的投资组合。
不得不承认，这些年来,这里一直有些疯狂。就在十多年前,当时还名不见经传的高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O’Neill)发明了金砖四国(BRIC)这个说法后,不久，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国,便开始以令投资界难以置信的方式,迅速崛起：2000年，这四个国家的国内生产总值(GDP),还只占据全球的8%左右，而到2010年,这个比例,已经增至17%左右。而造就如此快速增长的，则是一系列不寻常事件的共同影响──从政权,向大企业敞开大门，到昔日贫穷的人口大国,突然登上世界舞台。伴随着经济奇迹的发生，这些国家的股市,也出现了史无前例的强劲增长。在这个千年开始后的头十年中，中国的上交所,市场规模增长了一倍多，巴西和印度的市场,增长了三倍，而俄罗斯的主要股指,则增至十年前的9倍──因为,有大量资金源源涌入这些国家的本土企业。
除了增长动力可能减弱外，金砖四国在经历了过去十年的迅速发展后,都将面临一个问题：通货膨胀。据追踪研究新兴市场数十年的市场研究机构Riedel Research的大卫•雷德尔(David Riedel)称，印度和中国的工资上涨问题（此趋势,正以惊人的速度扩散）,已经开始对企业利润造成冲击。实际上，具有讽刺意味的是，劳动力成本的上升,已经促使不少企业将他们的工厂订单,转到像孟加拉和越南这样的人工更为低廉的制造业中心去了。与此同时，那些曾经历过通胀失控的可怕岁月的政府决策者们，被眼前食品和其他日用品价格不断上涨的局面吓坏了，正在竭尽全力遏制通胀。在过去的18个月里，印度官方将利率上调了12次，试图让经济从去年超过8%的增速上,冷却下来。中国政府自去年秋季以来,5次上调利率，而如今,该国经济仍以9%的速度大踏步地前进着，这个速度,大约是美国经济增速的6倍。
那么，如果不是著名的金砖四国，投资者们该去哪儿寻找下一个大牛市的机会呢？自然是一串新名字。现年75岁的传奇人物莫比乌斯表示，“只盯着一,两个国家看的投资者,正在坐失登船良机。”而今,这艘机遇之船,已经将几个码头,列入了航程──那是一些在旧版权威地图册上,都找不到的地名。比如说，汇丰资产管理公司(HSBC Asset Management)已经把注意力,放在了灵猫六国(Civets)之上──这里说的,不是那个生活在非洲和亚洲长得像猫鼬似的哺乳动物，而是包括,哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、越南、埃及、土耳其和南非在内的,6个快速增长的发展中市场的合称。与此同时，富达基金(Fidelity)在伦敦的一个部门,一直在与投资顾问们谈论-所谓造币厂四国(MINT)──墨西哥、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和土耳其。该机构在最近一份研究报告中称，上述四国,有潜力让投资者,在未来10年,获得如金砖四国过去10年所创造的收益水平。
基金经理们表示，新投资阵地上那些规模较小的企业,可能会存在额外的风险，这与原先的投资阵地一样。看看发生在来自金砖四国老大哥的那些小企业身上的事情吧：今年，美国证券监管官员对几家在美国上市的中国企业进行了调查，原因是,这些企业涉嫌误导投资者。根据斯坦福大学证券集团诉讼清算中心(Securities Class Action Clearinghouse)和基石研究咨询公司(Cornerstone Research)的数据，今年迄今为止,有32家中国企业遭到股东起诉，而去年同期,被起诉的中国企业只有8家。为什么会突然增加？分析师们称，有个原因,显而易见：去这些市场逐利的资金,比以往任何时候都要多。
据国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的数据，2010年,美国政府的债务负担,达到GDP的92%，而巴西的债务,仅占GDP的66%。智利呢？只有9%。奥尼尔说，“就在发达世界债务评级,接二连三被下调之际，发展中国家债务评级,正在被上调。”他还说，这促使人们调整了投资模型。就在投资者为美国国债寻找替代投资品，并开始考虑减少他们的美元投资头寸之际（许多策略师预计-美元未来将贬值），情况尤其如此。以巴西雷亚尔计值的10年期债券为例，该债券,近来,收益率高达13%，而美国国债的收益率,只有2%。
不过，对个人投资者而言，投资巴西的某只债券,并不容易。专家们建议，最好的方式,是交给经验丰富的基金经理们，让诸如邓普顿环球债券基金(Templeton Global Bond),或是太平洋投资管理公司新兴市场本地货币债券基金(Pimco Emerging Local Bond)的管理者们,来为你挑选合适的债券。没错，基金行业已经在这些地区,嗅到了机会，近几年来,已经新推出了不少新兴市场债券基金。根据晨星的数据，目前,包括ETF在内，此类基金,共计58只。这比2008年市场上此类基金的数量,增加了近一倍。而据基金研究机构EPFR称，自2010年初以来，这些债券基金,已经吸引投资760亿美元左右，而且,尽管近期市场担忧四起，但新兴市场债券基金的融资增长势头还在继续。
基金经理们同时提醒人们，这里,也潜伏着危险，而这不只是因为近来该领域的投资,变得如此受欢迎。普信新兴市场债券基金(T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond fund)的专家克里斯•狄龙(Chris Dillon)说，相比美国或是欧洲债券，新兴市场债券,对通货膨胀压力更敏感，其原因是，在发展中国家，食品价格在总体通胀中所占比例通常更大。这类投资,不适合心脏不好的投资者。不过，如果你问马修斯的投资组合经理特里萨•孔(Teresa Kong)-最冒险的投资是什么，她会指出,一个被人们广为采纳,却比持有大多数新兴市场债券风险还要高的投资策略：她说，你可能听说过，“叫做全部持有美元。”
The world this week is over, the little things in mind 1,2,3, …; the world of active human list 1,2,3, …; network file stations; old news back, non-news!
English, Japanese, automatic translation by Google; subject to Chinese
Google automatic translation machines use language, to promote the application, the world’s first person
Google automatic translation machine to use English, marketing, applications, the world’s first people
Google automatic translation machines Japanese use, promotion, application, world’s first people
UK helicopter Marketing Group, Inc. Chairman of the Board: Mr.George Chen = Mr.Geoorge S. Chen:
I only accept their own mobile phone text messages (0086-13901623260);
All my business partner, please contact with me every mail; potential purchase of European and American helicopter makers, you must issue a certificate of bank credit; if the buyer does not RMB 3,999,999 or more large certificates of deposit, please do not disturb, thank you
European and American brands helicopter purchase, please fill in a form: name, budget, business cards, unit address, phone number, box number, QQ number, purpose, location, flight kilometers requirements, whether private helicopter driving license …
“Wall Street Journal” reported that in the first set foot on land in Bangladesh, Ishida back three (Taizo Ishida, transliteration) thought he saw these images will always be associated with the left and right. The 1980s, Ishida as the United Nations development official was stationed there, when his eyes saw only the land of the poor. Not a reliable power grid, even the most basic public services are not, Ishida has always been considered ─ ─ precisely, in the last year, he always thought ─ ─ the poor South Asian country, is simply a synonym for developing countries .
Last year, as among the best performance of the Matthews Asian Growth Fund (Matthews Asia Growth fund) of the lead managers, Ishida once again came to Bangladesh, it is his mission after the United Nations since the end of the first return to the country. See this, so he was surprised: here, staged a wave of investment in full swing, all of this, let him feel familiar.
In Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka, rumbling sound filled the machine construction site. Today, the city is gradually transformed into the global textile industry center. Prices here, the community can be comparable to some high-end Manhattan. (Ishida, a friend, ten years ago, to $ 60,000 price, where to buy an apartment, and now, this apartment worth $ 1 million.) Meanwhile, the country’s booming stock market , the stock price is currently three times 15 months ago. Field Stone exclaimed, “this country is still poor, however, where market growth is explosive.” He is currently waiting for the market valuation fall for the investment.
According to those intrepid fund managers say, and now, every week in the global market through oscillation, such as earthquakes change the terrain, as the pattern of market volatility to promote investment, there has been equally rapid changes. Those who return to the world was like divine intervention center stage as the country ─ ─ Brazil, China, India and Russia ─ ─ now, compared with other regions, seems to return to the mortal realm. Nuggets tour route, and several years ago, very different, even in these there are many visitors trampling over the land, as well. Who has long been euphemistically dubbed “developing countries” in the name of the place was neglected, and now, is not expected before the big move forward with the speed.
• Mark Mobius (Mark Mobius) is a pioneer in investing in emerging markets, he Franklin Templeton Investments (Franklin Templeton) manages about 500 billion dollars in assets. Recently, he has been buying real estate in Romania, Nigeria and Kazakhstan’s oil bank shares. Wasatch Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund (Wasatch Emerging Markets Small Cap fund) joint fund manager Laura • Ge Lizi (Laura Geritz), this summer, with some companies in Ghana CEO, as well as local investors have been approached. Currently, Ghana’s national stock market, has about 30 stocks in publicly traded.
Changing patterns of investment behind, there are many reasons, such as China and India’s economic slowdown, the rise of new consumer markets, as well as the debt crisis in the international arena, and so evolve in ways unexpected. Of course, there is a greater cause: old investment is no longer worked. Think about it, as of December 2010, in the past 10 years, the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI Emerging Markets index) increases, the S & P 500 Index (S & P 500) exceeded 250 percent full; and After that, the index is the S & P index, behind seven points. In this area, more than 20 years of investment experience of Mary • Nigelite – Gelu Sen (Maria Negrete-Gruson) said, “does not mean that emerging market opportunities have been exhausted, but not in the same place. “She is, for the Artisan Fund (Artisan Funds) manages nearly $ 1 billion asset portfolio.
Investment veterans will tell you, one thing has not changed, and that is the risk. There are market fluctuations. In addition, you need every day, sitting in a you do not speak the local language, understand local customs, but when the guns sounded, no place to hide the casino, bet, this exotic investment experience, has not changed. After all, the emerging markets is one day, the index fell 17% will be able to place, like Russian Micex index, in September 2008, a hapless Tuesday, as experienced. (Standard & Poor’s index, the Lehman Brothers (Lehman Brothers) during the crisis, there have been the biggest single-day decline, has just 12%.)
According to Morningstar Inc. (Morningstar) data, in 2008, diversified emerging market funds, an average of 54%, a larger decline than the U.S. market during the Great Depression (Great Recession) appear the worst performance, but also exceeded 17 percent. Moreover, as recently as this fall, emerging markets, has experienced a total defeat, Morgan Stanley emerging market index, in the past three months, fell 18 percent, down about three times the S & P index. Devaluation of the currency, commodity prices, diving, or political changes, market trends can make instant changes (for example, in June this year, the new government in Peru after the election, the majority of Peru’s mining sector, one day, there are double-digit decline).
However, the emerging markets fund managers no how to put these concerns to heart, they searched all over the world, only an elusive target for the same investment ─ ─ treasures. Today, the world situation changes, but the means they need to adjust the equipment, and to consider the asset class, then, yes, that is the customer’s money, a change of place. So, now, these Nuggets are the most experienced who again bets on where it? Our investment adventure guide offers little clues.
Have to admit, all these years, there has been a bit crazy. Just a decade ago, was also little-known Goldman (Goldman Sachs) economist Jim O’Neill • (Jim O’Neill) invented the BRIC countries (BRIC) this statement shortly after, Brazil, Russia, India and China , in order to make the investment community will begin an incredible way to quickly rise: In 2000, these four countries gross domestic product (GDP), also occupy only about 8% of the world, and by 2010, this proportion has increased to 17 percent. And created such a rapid growth, a series of unusual events is the combined effect of ─ ─ from power, open the door to large enterprises, to the old poor populous country, suddenly on the world stage. With the economic miracle, these countries’ stock markets, there have been unprecedented strong growth. After the start of this millennium’s first decade, the Shanghai Stock Exchange in China, the market has more than doubled the size of Brazil and India market, tripled, and Russia’s main stock index, increased to nine years ago ─ ─ times because there are a lot of money pouring into these countries, local enterprises.
Huge economies of these countries, no doubt will continue to demonstrate its vitality ─ ─ It is now chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management is expected O’Neal to 2018 years ago, the BRIC’s economy will surpass the United States. But even so, those who experienced money managers that the future trend of the BRIC markets will be much less than before. In fact, some of these countries, strong trading in stocks, there have been increases, lack of motivation, or even rally signs of exhaustion, and most analysts believe that, where the other stocks, sooner or later escape the robbery. Artisan Funds Nigelite – Gelu Sen said, “Once a well-developed markets, emerging markets, it is difficult to reproduce the trend of the times.”
Addition to the growth momentum is likely to weaken, the BRIC countries over the past decade has experienced rapid development, will face a problem: inflation. According to the study of emerging markets for decades to track the market research firm Riedel Research David • Raeder (David Riedel), India and China, the problem of rising wages (this trend is being spread at an alarming rate), corporate profits have begun to an impact. In fact, ironically, is that the rise in labor costs, has prompted many companies to their factory orders, go to Bangladesh and Vietnam, such as cheaper labor to the manufacturing center. At the same time, those who have experienced the terrible years of runaway inflation, government policymakers, is the immediate food and other commodity prices are rising the situation frightened, is doing its utmost to curb inflation. In the past 18 months, the Indian government raised interest rates 12 times, trying to make the economy more than 8 percent from last year’s growth rate, and cooling down. The Chinese government since last fall, raised interest rates five times, and now, the country’s economic rate of 9% is still great strides to move forward, this rate is about six times the U.S. economic growth.
This is not to say that you where from the BRIC countries, can not find a good investment opportunity. Investment experience, in the Matthews Asian Funds chief investment officer of Ru g (Robert Horrocks), now, is still actively looking for investment opportunities from China. Over the past 15 years, how about grams of Management’s flagship fund, to achieve a 10% annual yield. He believes that – a large number of Chinese middle class, or will continue to consume. However, despite this, how about grams have also seen changes in China: Chinese consumers are now no longer just buy household appliances, they started in the insurance, healthcare, education and entertainment areas such as money, how about g that these industries the future will be able to achieve steady growth. Of course, invest in such areas need to dig deeper look, because the whole, the proportion of the services sector in emerging markets is still relatively small. For example, health-care assets in the major emerging markets index, accounting for only a mere 1%, while the Standard & Poor’s index of service sector, the proportion is 12%.
So, if not the famous BRIC countries, investors where to go looking for the next bull market opportunity? Nature is a bunch of new names. 75-year-old legend, now Mobius said, “just looking at one or two countries in the world of investors, an opportunity is being missed on board.” Now, aboard ships of opportunity, has several terminals, included in the ─ ─ It is a voyage of some authority in the old map book, can not find the names. For example, HSBC Asset Management Corporation (HSBC Asset Management) has to focus, on the civet six countries (Civets) above ─ ─ said here, not that living in Africa and Asia looks like a mongoose-like mammal , but including, Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa, including the six fast-growing developing markets together. At the same time, Fidelity Investments (Fidelity), a division in London, has been talking with investment advisers – the so-called Mint four countries (MINT) ─ ─ Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. The agency said in a recent research report, the four countries, there are potential investors in the next 10 years, obtained as the BRIC countries over the past 10 years to create the level of return.
O’Neal even say the inventor of the BRIC countries, recently, more and more began to talk about a named N-11 (ie the next 11 countries) of the area. N-11, in addition to the above-mentioned countries, but also with Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines. Goldman Sachs believes that these countries, emerging markets are expected to become the new hot spot for investment. Moreover, at least a statistical data can show, to new areas of the investment has already begun: in 2006, flows to emerging market equity funds, 69%, into the BRIC countries, and by 2010, the proportion of has been reduced to 53%.
Wasatch manages a $ 900 million in assets in emerging market fund (the fund rate of return over the past three years, 35%) of the Ge Lizi, and Roger • Aiqi Li (Roger Edgley) has to invest their assets in China ratio, from the end of 2008 about 18%, cut to about 4%, and one of the many assets, into Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, in the three countries of investment, currently in the proportion of total fund assets More than one-fifth. Although the Chinese enterprises in various conferences and forums, is still sought after by the audience, people prefer to stand, we should listen to their speech, but from the United States western Kansas, now 39 years old, soft-spoken of Ge Lizi, prefer those who do not where hot-headed investors ─ ─ for example, some Southeast Asian countries and enterprises in a recent meeting, these companies do a speech, the room is almost empty. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines business, not only on the valuation of the whole cheaper than Chinese companies, and these markets, competition is much less: Ge Lizi, in contrast, China’s retail business, may “see every day new competitors to market. ”
Fund managers said the new investment positions on those smaller businesses, there may be additional risks, which is the same as the original investment positions. See from the BRIC countries in those small businesses who Big Brother thing right: This year, several U.S. securities regulatory officials in the United States conducted a survey of Chinese companies because these companies allegedly misleading investors. According to securities class action settlement Stanford University Center (Securities Class Action Clearinghouse) and the cornerstone of research and consulting firm (Cornerstone Research) data, so far this year, 32 Chinese companies have been shareholder lawsuits, and last year, Chinese enterprises only be prosecuted 8. Why the sudden increase? Analysts say there is a reason is obvious: to profit-driven funds in these markets, more than ever before.
Of course, for many of the world walk around the Nuggets, the new investment line, not only took them to some remote, unfamiliar places, those hidden in the corner of the market, many of them will evoke painful memories: emerging market debt. Any experience of the 1994 Tequila crisis in Mexico (Tequila Crisis, then, the Mexican peso exchange rate plunged), began in the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the Russian ruble crisis and debt default followed by people that investment in these countries’ debt, and currency, seems crazy move. However, fund managers say, now, the global debt situation, with the past, just out of a height, some investors worry that Europe (and even U.S.) in debt crisis, the emerging market for safe haven.
According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) data, in 2010, the U.S. government’s debt burden, 92% of GDP, while Brazil’s debt, only 66% of GDP. Chile it? Only 9%. O’Neill said, “in the developed world debt rating was lowered one after another occasion, rating the debt of developing countries, are being raised.” He said, prompting people to adjust the investment model. U.S. Treasury bonds in investors looking for an alternative investment, and begin to consider reducing their dollar investment position of the occasion (many strategists expect – the future depreciation of the dollar), the situation in particular. Denominated in Brazilian real 10-year bonds, for example, the bonds, the recent rate of return as high as 13%, while the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds, and only 2%.
However, for individual investors, investment bonds, only one in Brazil is not easy. The experts suggested that the best way is to experienced fund managers, so as Templeton Global Bond Fund (Templeton Global Bond), or Pacific Investment Management Company Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund (Pimco Emerging Local Bond ) of the managers to select the right bond for you. Yes, the fund industry has been in these areas, smell the opportunity, in recent years, has been a lot of new emerging market bond funds. According to Morningstar data, at present, including the ETF, including such funds, a total of 58. 2008 than the number of such funds on the market, has nearly doubled. According to research firm EPFR Fund, said since the beginning of 2010, these bond funds, has attracted investment of about $ 76 billion, and, despite the recent market concerns about everywhere, but the financing of emerging market bond funds growth continues.
Fund managers are also reminded people here, but also potentially dangerous, but it’s not just because of the recent investment in this area, has become so popular. S & P Emerging Markets Bond Fund letter (T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond fund) expert Chris • Dillon (Chris Dillon) said, compared to U.S. or European bonds, emerging market debt, more sensitive to inflationary pressures, the reason is In developing countries, inflation in food prices in the overall proportion is usually greater. Such investment, the investor is not suitable for a bad heart. However, if you ask Matthews, a portfolio manager Theresa • Hole (Teresa Kong) – What is the most risky investment, she would point out that a widely adopted by people, than most emerging market bonds held by risk investment strategy is even higher: She said, you may have heard, “called all the holders of dollars.”
Realtors will be happy to remind you, “the best time to buy a house has arrived!” Many people do not want back into the house when, in fact, is a good time to buy a house.
“Wall Street Journal,” a housing market survey, now buy a house, than in the past 15 years, has never been more affordable. Taking into account the average house price is 242,300 dollars, in fact, buy a house in 12 metropolitan areas, cheaper than renting, the 12 cities, including Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando and Phoenix and so on.
“In Atlanta, most cost-effective to buy a house in the third quarter, assuming a 20% down payment for a house, the average family pays only $ 539 per month, compared with an average asking rent, compared with $ 840.”
Falling house prices, and 4% of the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is to improve housing affordability the biggest driving force behind the trend. However, the only problem is unlike the glory days when selling houses, and now, to get home loans much more difficult.