英国首相访德国, 默克尔：“欧洲各国将患难与共”,2011年,柏林11月18日,在解决欧债危机问题上,德国和英国对外做出“伙伴”姿态。在和来访的英国首相卡梅伦会晤之后，德国总理默克尔,18日在此间强调，她和卡梅伦取得了一致，将在下届欧盟峰会中,共同寻求推行欧元稳定机制的解决办法。
德国,英国之间的关系,在过去一段时间里-英国首相公开批评德国在处理欧元危机时的一些做法，两国媒体中,言论。
在卡梅伦到访柏林之前，德国财长朔伊布勒再次公开提及-在欧洲范围内,实行金融交易税，认为,所有商业行为,都要交营业税，实行金融交易税,是理所当然。由于担心金融交易税对本国金融经济产生影响，英国一直反对这一提议。
在和卡梅伦共同接见记者时，默克尔特意谈到德国英国友好关系，表示:两国有让欧洲成功的共同信念，两国虽然有分歧，“但我认为，欧洲只能这样,才能生存，那就是,所有强国,相互之间,宽容体谅”。“如果我和戴维为解决问题一起工作，那我们,也能找到解决办法”。
卡梅伦称,英国作为一个商业民族，虽然,不是欧元成员国，但,会在欧洲积极行动，因为,欧元区的稳定,关系到英国以及欧洲市场。
卡梅伦建议:欧元区应该实行一个类似国库规则，以免未来再次出现目前这样的严重债务危机。欧元国应该团结一致，为外界展示出解决困难的决心及前景，并提出具有竞争力的计划。
对此,默克尔重申,更改“欧盟条约”问题，提出,欧元区已经出现过60余次违反稳定条约事件，因此,欧盟需要更多权力,督促各国政府履行义务，但,目前的欧盟条约,对此限制很多。
默克尔强调,所有欧盟27国团结的重要性。她说，目前,国际间,都在关注欧洲是否真的团结?“我们将患难与共，因为我们知道，如果不这样做，欧洲在一个有70亿人口的世界中,没有前途”。(完)
意大利之后，法国“沦陷”？ 2011年11月19日
法国总统萨科齐最担心失去AAA主权债务评级。
标普误调法国评级直指欧元核心区，是美国对欧元的一次典型的压力测试
欧债危机，意大利之后,谁会成为下一个？
11月10日，国际评级机构标准普尔突然向部分用户发电邮称,已下调法国AAA最高评级，市场一片恐慌。
两小时后，标普突然澄清:是技术失误造成误报，标普误降风波,让法国政府大怒，下令彻查。对面临压力的法国政府来说，这一“错误”,难以容忍，但对市场来说，这一“错误”,其实无关紧要。因为,在许多投资者和经济学家眼中，法国长期信用评级,已不再是最优的AAA级。
近日，法国《 世界报》的报道标题,显得尤为触目惊心——“希腊与意大利之后，法国？”
“误降”,折射法国困境
“就算是标普的人为疏失，可是为什么就是法国呢？”一位分析师的问题,得到了很多共鸣，认为标普此举,耐人寻味。
英国《 泰晤士报》曾援引美国银行美林国际研究部的投资策略师约翰·雷思的话说，“如果意大利完蛋了，它就会把法国拖下水。这是件很可怕的事。”
法国银行拥有意大利银行大量股份，并在意大利建立了庞大的分支机构网络，法国的银行持有巨额意大利国债，意大利危机,必然冲击到法国的金融系统，对法国造成巨大影响。。
此前，受债务危机影响，法国各大银行赢利能力,已经大幅下滑。近日，法国巴黎银行、兴业银行、农业信贷和法国人民储蓄银行集团,均公布了三季报。季报显示，四大银行第三季度净利润,骤减至24亿欧元（1欧元,约合8.54元人民币），去年,同期,四家银行的盈利,接近70亿欧元，银行利润下滑幅度均超30％。
国际信用评级机构穆迪公司,在9月,曾调降法国兴业和农业信贷两大银行评级，10月17日,穆迪发出警告：未来3个月内,有可能将法国主权信用评级置于负面观察名单。
法国是意大利最大的债权国，根据国际清算银行公布的数据显示，截至今年二季度末，法国银行业持有意大利债券风险敞口（注：风险敞口,是指因债务人违约行为,导致的可能承受风险的信贷余额。）为4102亿欧元，是德国的两倍多。随着意大利债务危机发酵，法国10年期国债收益率,上周超过3.4％（收益率越高，意味着法国国债发债成本越高），较德国10年期国债收益率,高168个基点，创下欧元问世以来,历史新高。
欧洲复兴开发银行创始人雅克·阿塔利评论说，从法国与德国10年期国债收益率息差看，法国信用评级,已不是AAA级。
法国外贸银行首席经济学家帕特里克·阿蒂斯,今年10月说，按照标普的评级模型，以及法国官方的公开数据，法国信用评级只有AA。目前,评级机构普遍没有下调法国信用评级，可能是认为,法国政府能在短期内,对一些问题进行修复。这一次，标普误降法国评级，法国媒体普遍认为，这不是一个小事故，表明标准普尔正在研究给法国降级。
欧债危机,像一部漫长的连续剧，每一个国家陷入危机，都是从信用评级被下调开始的。
《 金融时报》文章称，法国总统萨科齐最担心的,是失去法国的AAA主权债务评级。
新加坡《 联合早报》称，“法国AAA信贷评级一旦调降，将令准备在六个月后,争取连任的萨科齐总统，颜面无光；对一直在想方设法挽救欧元的欧盟领袖来说，也将是个重大打击。”
“地主家,也没有余粮了”
法国《 世界报》在以“希腊与意大利之后，法国？”为题的报道中,列出一幅对比鲜明的图表：意大利债务1.9万亿欧元，法国债务为1.7万亿欧元，欧洲救援基金,比这两个数字小得多。
雅克·阿塔利在其新书《 国家的破产》中写道：“因为自己就是统治者，所以,每一个法国公民,都欠了国家债权人,相当于自己九个月收入的债务。”阿塔利警告说：“西方国家即将破产。”
实际上，法国走到今天，与希腊、意大利南欧等国，甚至与美国的问题都相似。过去几十年来，欧洲一些国家,人人想要高工资、高福利，还要多度假、少工作，同时,希望政府少缴税，养成了没钱就借的消费方式。
“欧洲实行低利率，即使债务到期,也没关系，借新债还旧债，于是,债务越滚越大。”加拿大皇家银行风险管理资深顾问、《 金融让谁富有》作者陈**说，欧洲各政府为了满足选民的需要，不断调低央行的利息，放松信贷鼓励消费，这样既提高了GDP的增长政绩，选民过上了天堂般的好生活，皆大欢喜。但是，支撑如此生活的方式,只有一个，那就是必须有人愿意借钱供他们消费。
欧洲债务大幅扩张，预算大笔大笔超支，财政赤字连年增加。这不难理解，为何希腊卷入债务危机之后，欧元区国家会像多米诺骨牌一样，一个接一个倒下。以至于意大利的危机爆发后，欧洲媒体跟着就猜测，谁将是下一个？
法国的经济数据，实在不得不让人担忧-这个欧洲大国的命运：根据法国央行报告指出，法国第3季GDP成长率仅0.1％，预计第4季将零成长。债务居高不下，经济成长却陷入停滞，法国偿债能力备受考验。
法国目前,存在的问题几乎无解，因为,人口老龄化尚无有效的政策来缓解。美国可以依靠其强大的军事实力,与金融霸权,缓解本国的债务问题。但,对于除德国外的欧洲各国来说，如果找不到有效的策略与方法,都难以避免主权债务危机。
作为欧元区第二大经济体，法国,过去,一直是欧洲金融稳定机制主要出资者之一，如今,法国自身难保，人们才发现,这些资助穷国的富国,实际上,是“泥菩萨过江”。“地主家,也没有余粮，哪还有钱再借给穷国呢？”
欧洲不会让法国倒下
欧洲货币统一之后，欧元区的财政政策,并没有实现统一，货币和财政是联动的，当一个国家的债务,达到一定的程度后，其利率和汇率,都会发生相应的变化，比如,利率升高，货币贬值。
现在,整个欧元区使用单一货币，这就意味着,当单个国家债务过高的时候，并不会引起利率的上升或是货币的贬值，也就是缺乏相应市场反应。唯一的反应,就是国债收益率，这是到了最后的危机时刻,才出现的反应，根本不能起到预警机制。
国家在面对经济危机时,可以通过贬值本币促进经济增长，从而提高财政收入，度过危机，但欧洲国家没有这样的措施，欧盟各成员国失去了利用货币政策来平抑经济波动的工具，只能靠各自的财政政策来应付经济问题，这加大了危机处理难度。
欧元像是“欧元之父”蒙代尔心目中,独立于国家的“理想货币”，欧元的基础,名义上是多个国家的信用，个体的理性,导致机体的非理性，从根本上,缺乏牢固而稳定的信用基础。加上欧元区内部各成员国,必然存在着差别巨大的工资水平、社保和财政税收体制，这些问题,在可以预见的时间内,是无法解决的。欧元一旦发生危机，各国财政不统一，整个欧洲,必将陷入一种无力施救的不断衰退的状态。
欧元的诞生,对美元已形成严重威胁与巨大挑战，美元从来没有放弃打压欧元的战略。
标普误调法国评级,直指欧元核心区，是美国对欧元的一次典型的压力测试。
决定法国命运的主动权显然掌握在美国手中，美国要击垮欧元，必然要大肆渲染法国的债务危机。至于欧元到底何时才死，则取决于美国人。欧元诞生主要由法国推动，如果不建立欧洲央行与欧元，德国凭借实力将主宰欧洲各国的金融与货币政策，德国马克将成为欧洲主导货币的角色，其他国家的货币均将以德国马克为锚。法国人通过欧元的建立来遏制德国金融势力的扩张，防止法国降为德国的经济附庸国。
法国对欧元具有决定性的作用，法国倒下，将意味着欧元的终结。
欧元终结是不会发生的结局。
这一次,欧元派技术官僚蒙蒂接管意大利，说明,欧洲会极力维护欧元的稳定。
现在,大家往往只说欧元的坏处，欧元给欧洲国家带来好处，比如,德国成为经济增长最快的国家,也有赖于周边国家的食品、原材料的供应。欧元的结局,可以是大家都不玩了，也不还钱，也不退出欧元，而是采取强制的紧缩政策，这时,选民也没话说了。
如果欧洲危机大到一定的程度，欧洲央行将重启债券购买计划，也就是欧洲央行通过印刷欧元来购买成员国的债券，这样也就解了法国的债务情况，欧元不会崩溃。
欧元区主要国家未偿债务
国家 未偿债务(亿欧元)
德国 11705
法国 13924
意大利 16862
希腊 2900
西班牙 6757
注：各国债务数据为路透社今年7月公布，按照1美元＝0.7438欧元折算。
British Prime Minister’s visit to Germany, Angela Merkel: “European countries will share weal and woe”, 2011, Berlin, November 18, in addressing the debt crisis in Europe, Germany and the UK’s foreign made “partners” attitude. In and visiting British Prime Minister David Cameron, after meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel, 18, emphasized here, she and Cameron made the same, will be at the next EU summit, the common implementation of the euro’s stability mechanism to seek a solution.
Germany, the relationship between the United Kingdom, over a period of time – British Prime Minister, dealing with public criticism of Germany’s euro crisis in some of the practices, the two media, freedom of speech.
Cameron visit in Berlin before the German Finance Minister Schäuble again mentioned in public – in the European context, the implementation of financial transactions tax, that all commercial activity, must pay sales tax, the implementation of financial transactions tax, is a matter of course. Fearing the financial transaction tax on the domestic financial and economic impact, the UK has opposed the proposal.
And Cameron met with reporters in common when it comes Merkel specially friendly relations between the United Kingdom, Germany, said: There are two common beliefs to the success of Europe, although there are differences between the two countries, “but I think that Europe can only way to survive , that is, all power, mutual, understanding. ” “If David and I work together to solve the problem, then we can also find a solution.”
Cameron said that Britain as a commercial nation, though, is not a euro member states, but, positive action in Europe, because the stability of the euro area is related to the UK and European markets.
Cameron suggested: Eurozone treasury should implement a similar rule, so as not to appear again in the future currently such a serious debt crisis. Euro countries should unite to show the outside world to solve problems and prospects of the determination, and made a competitive program.
In this regard, Merkel reiterated that the change “EU Treaty” issue, the euro zone has appeared in more than 60 violations of the Stability Pact events, so the EU needs more power, urging governments to fulfill their obligations, but the current EU treaty , which limits a lot.
Merkel stressed that all EU-27 the importance of solidarity. She said that currently, international, are really concerned about the unity of Europe? “We will share weal and woe, because we know that if you do not, Europe has 70 million people in a world in which no future.” (End)
After Italy, France, “occupied”? November 19, 2011
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the fear of losing AAA sovereign debt rating.
S & P rating error tone directed at the French core area of the euro, the euro is a typical U.S. stress tests
Debt crisis in Europe, after Italy, who will be the next?
November 10, the international rating agency Standard & Poor’s suddenly part of the user to send e-mail said, France has reduced the highest AAA rating, the market panic.
Two hours later, Standard & Poor’s suddenly clear: the technical errors caused by false positives, false S & P down storm, the French government was furious and ordered an investigation. Of the French government, under pressure, this “error”, intolerable, but the market, this “error”, in fact, does not matter. Because, in the eyes of many investors and economists, the French long-term credit rating is no longer the best AAA.
Recently, the French “Le Monde” reported the title, it is particularly shocking – “Greece and Italy, the French?”
“False down”, reflects the plight of France
“Even if the Standard & Poor’s human error, but why the French do?” An analyst’s question, get a lot of resonance, that the S & P move, thought-provoking.
British “The Times” has quoted the Ministry of International Studies, Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment strategist John Rehn as saying, “If Italy finished, it will the French get involved, this is a terrible thing.”
French banks have a large stake in the Bank of Italy, and Italy established a large network of branches, Bank of France holds a huge debt of Italy, the Italian crisis, will have an impact to the French financial system, a tremendous impact on France. .
Prior to that, by the debt crisis, the profitability of French banks, has fallen sharply. Recently, Paris, France Bank, Industrial Bank, Agricultural Credit and Savings Bank Group, the French people, were published three quarterly. Quarterly, the third-quarter net profit of the four major banks, plummeted to 24 million euros (1 euro, or about 8.54 yuan), last year over the same period, the profitability of the four banks, close to 70 billion euros, bank profits decline surpassed 30 percent.
International credit rating agency Moody’s, in September, has cut two French banks Societe Generale and Credit Agricole ratings, on 17 October, Moody’s issued a warning: the next three months, it is possible to put the French sovereign credit rating negative watch list.
French is Italy’s largest creditor, according to data published by the Bank for International Settlements, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the French banking holding Italian debt exposure (Note: the risk of exposure, is the default behavior of the debtor, may lead to bear the risk of credit balance.) to 410.2 billion euros, more than double in Germany. With the debt crisis of the Italian fermentation, the French 10-year Treasury yields last week, more than 3.4% (higher rate of return means that the higher the French debt issuance costs), representing a 10-year bond yields in Germany, 168 basis points higher , the highest since the advent of the euro, a record high.
European Bank for Reconstruction and founder Yake A Tully commented that, from the French and German 10-year yield spreads of view, the French credit rating is not AAA.
French Foreign Trade Bank Chief Economist Patrick A Curtis, said in October this year, according to Standard & Poor’s rating model, and the French official public data, only the French credit rating AA. At present, the rating agencies generally do not cut the credit rating of France, may be that the French government in the short term, on some issues to fix. This time, the S & P rating error down France, the French media in general, this is not a small incident that is being studied to Standard & Poor’s downgrade of France.
European debt crisis, like a long series, every country in crisis, all from the beginning of the credit downgrades.
“Financial Times” article said that French President Nicolas Sarkozy are most worried about the loss of France’s AAA sovereign debt rating.
Singapore’s “Lianhe Zaobao” said, “Once the French AAA credit rating cut, which will be ready in six months, for re-election of President Sarkozy, leaving in disgrace; been trying to save the euro for the EU leaders is also will be a major blow. ”
“Landlord, there is no surplus of”
French “Le Monde” in order to “Greece and Italy, the French?” In the title of the report, listed a chart contrasting: € 1.9 trillion of debt in Italy, France, the debt of 1.7 trillion euros, the European Relief Fund much smaller than the two figures.
Yake A Tully in his new book “State of the bankruptcy,” he wrote: “Because he is the ruler, so that every French citizen, owes the state creditors, the debt is equivalent to their nine-month earnings.” Atta Lee warned: “Western countries going bankrupt.”
Indeed, the French came today, with Greece, Italy, Southern Europe and other countries, even with America’s problems are similar. Over the past few decades, some European countries, everyone wants high wages, high benefits, but also more vacation, less work, and hope that the Government paying less tax, to develop the borrowed money on consumption.
“Europe, a low interest rate, even if the maturity of the debt, it does not matter, by refinance old debt, so debt snowball.” Royal Bank of Canada senior risk management consultant, “who is rich to finance” the authors said Chen **, European governments in order to meet the needs of voters, the central bank continued to reduce interest, easy credit to encourage consumption, which not only improves the performance of GDP growth, voters had to heaven like a good life, happy. However, to support such a way of life, only one, that is, there must be people willing to borrow money for their consumption.
Substantial expansion of the European debt, budget, an enormous amount overruns, the fiscal deficit increased year after year. It is not difficult to understand why the Greek involvement in the debt crisis, the euro-zone countries will be like dominoes, one by one down. That the Italian crisis, followed by the European media speculation, who is next?
France’s economic data, it had to wonder about – the fate of Europe’s great powers: report under the Bank of France, the French third quarter GDP growth rate of 0.1% is expected in the fourth quarter of zero growth. Debt remains high, economic growth has stalled, France solvency fiasco.
France currently, there are virtually no solution, because the aging population there is no effective policies to alleviate. The United States can rely on its strong military power, and financial hegemony, to ease their debt problems. However, for the European countries except Germany, if not find effective strategies and methods, it is difficult to avoid the sovereign debt crisis.
As the euro zone’s second largest economy, France, in the past, has been the main sponsor of the European financial stability mechanism, one of today, the French trouble, it was found that these funding poor countries rich, in fact, is “too clay Buddha Jiang. ” “Landlord, there is no surplus, which have money to lend to poor countries it?”
Europe will not let France fall
European monetary unification, the euro area fiscal policy has not achieved unity, monetary and fiscal linkage is, when a country’s debt, up to a certain extent, the interest rate and exchange rate will change accordingly, for example, interest rates rise high, the currency devaluation.
Now, the entire euro zone single currency, which means that when a single national debt is too high, and will not cause the rise in interest rates or currency devaluation, which is the lack of appropriate market response. The only response is that bond yields, which is to the last crisis, it appears the response, can not play the early warning mechanism.
Countries in the face of economic crisis, devaluation of the currency can promote economic growth, thereby increasing revenue, through the crisis, but European countries do not have such measures, the EU member states have lost the use of monetary policy to stabilize economic fluctuations of the tool, only by their own fiscal policy to deal with economic problems, which increased the difficulty of crisis management.
Euro like “Father of Euro” Mundell mind, independent of the state “ideal currency” the euro in nominal terms is more than the country’s credit, the individual rationality, leading to the body of the non-rational, fundamentally, lack of a solid and stable basis of credit. Together with the Member States within the euro area, there must be a huge difference in wage levels, social security and fiscal and taxation system, these problems in the foreseeable period of time, can not be resolved. Euro in the event of crisis, the financial non-uniform countries across Europe, will continue to fall into a recession, unable to rescue the state.
Birth of the euro, the dollar has become a serious threat with enormous challenges, the U.S. has never abandoned the strategy to suppress the euro.
S & P rating error tone France, directed at the core of the euro area, the euro is a typical U.S. stress test.
Determine the fate of the French initiative clearly rests in the hands of the United States, the United States to defeat the euro, will have to hype the debt crisis in France. As for the euro in the end when it died, it depends on the Americans. Mainly by France to promote the birth of the euro, if you do not set up the European Central Bank and the euro, Germany would dominate Europe by virtue of the strength of national financial and monetary policy, the German mark will become Europe’s leading role in the currency, currencies of other countries will be the German mark as the anchor. The establishment of the euro by the French to contain the expansion of Germany’s financial powers, France fell to Germany to prevent the economic vassal state.
France has a decisive effect on the euro, the French fall, will mean the end of the euro.
The euro is the end outcome will not occur.
This time, the euro sent technocrats Monty took over Italy, stated that the European will be striving to maintain stability of the euro.
Now, we often just say harm the euro, the euro has brought benefits to the European countries, such as Germany to become the fastest growing national economy, also depends on the neighboring countries of food, raw materials supply. The outcome of the euro, we can not play, do not pay back the money, not leaving the euro, but to enforce the austerity policy, then, voters impress.
If the European crisis, to a certain extent, the European Central Bank will restart the bond purchase plan, which is printed by the European Central Bank member countries to buy euro bonds, so the debt will solve the situation in France, the euro will not collapse.
Major countries in the euro area of outstanding debt
State debt outstanding (million euros)
Germany 11705
France 13924
Italy 16862
Greece 2900
Spain 6757
Note: The national debt for the Reuters data released in July this year, U.S. $ 1 = 0.7438 euros conversion.